613
FXUS62 KTAE 310035
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
835 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2025
..NEW UPDATE, MARINE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 830 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2025
THE MAIN CHANGES TO TONIGHT'S FORECAST WERE ADJUSTING RAIN
CHANCES, SKY COVER, AND HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR EVENING
CONVECTIVE TRENDS. LINGERING SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DIMINISH AND/OR EXIT NORTH OF THE TRI-STATE AREA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HRS OR SO. A MOSTLY QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED, THOUGH
SOME LOCALIZED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT CLOSER AND I-10 ARE POSSIBLE.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2025
ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS STORMS ACROSS SE ALABAMA AND THE FL
PANHANDLE GET GOING, ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED
TO OUR FL COUNTIES AND FIRST ROW OF SOUTHERN GA COUNTIES. MID-LEVEL
DRY AIR WILL BE INTRUDING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION,
WITH THE BEST PWATS ACROSS SE ALABAMA AND THE FL PANHANDLE
LEADING TO THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BEING THERE.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2025
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO DIP DOWN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE AND THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN.
EVERY DAY WE'LL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION, MIXING OUT THE
DRY MID-LEVEL AIR WE'RE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING. PWATS LOOK TO BE
AROUND 2 TO 2.5 INCHES LEADING TO CONCERNS OF FLASH FLOODING OVER
AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN CONTINUOUS RAINFALL OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS OR
AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE. THE FRONT LOOKS TO SAG SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO TRAINING STORMS, FURTHER ENHANCING
THESE CONCERNS. BY MONDAY THE COLD FRONT MOVES ON AND PWATS DROP
TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES LEADING TO MORE USUAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THE WPC MAINTAINS MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISKS OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND. DAYTIME TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVEL AFTER THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO GENERALLY BE IN THE 90S UNTIL SATURDAY, BY
SUNDAY DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 80S. EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MID 70S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2025
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AIM TO AFFECT ABY THE MOST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HRS WITH ANOTHER HR OF THUNDER POTENTIALLY IMPACTING
REMAINING SITES. CONVECTION SHOULD WANE THEREAFTER. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT VFR CONDS THIS EVENING. THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW OF MVFR
CIGS AT DHN/ABY FOR WHICH A TEMPO GROUP IS IN PLACE TO ACCT IN THE
9-12 TIME FRAME. INTRODUCED PROB30S FOR -TSRA AT ALL BUT VLD
BEGINNING AROUND 18Z. BEST CONFIDENCE IS ECP/DHN. SOUTHWEST WINDS
GENERALLY BELOW 10 KTS PREVAIL AWAY FROM STORMS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 830 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2025
PM OBSERVATIONS:
PANAMA CITY TIDE STATION (8729108) - SUSTAINED WSW WIND 7 KTS.
PANAMA CITY BEACH TIDE STATION (8729210) - SUSTAINED SW WIND 6
KTS.
WEST TAMPA BUOY (42036) - SUSTAINED SW WIND NEAR 12 KTS WITH
1-2-FT SEAS AND A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 3 SECONDS.
CWF SYNOPSIS: WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT AROUND 10-15 KTS
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SEAS OF 1-2 FEET.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2025
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN HOT THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND THAT
WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN FOR FOLKS OUTSIDE THROUGH THE
WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH THURSDAY AS
DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR MOVES IN. FIRE CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW BUT
DISPERSIONS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP UP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 227 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2025
THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS, A WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL TOTALING 1-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED/NUISANCE
FLOODING ISSUES. THE WPC HAS PLACED OUR REGION IN MARGINAL (1/4)
AND SLIGHT (2/4) RISKS FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOCAL RIVERINE FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 77 94 77 95 / 10 40 10 60
PANAMA CITY 81 91 81 92 / 10 40 20 60
DOTHAN 75 92 76 94 / 30 40 20 70
ALBANY 77 95 76 95 / 60 30 20 60
VALDOSTA 77 96 76 97 / 10 20 10 40
CROSS CITY 78 93 76 94 / 10 20 0 30
APALACHICOLA 82 89 80 90 / 20 30 10 50
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ TO 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/
THURSDAY FOR FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-
128-134-326-426.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ115.
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR GAZ155>161.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
UPDATE...IG3
NEAR TERM...OLIVER
SHORT TERM...OLIVER
LONG TERM....OLIVER
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...OLIVER/IG3
FIRE WEATHER...OLIVER
HYDROLOGY...MONTGOMERY
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