908
FXUS62 KTAE 311430
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1030 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2025
NO UPDATES NEEDED THIS MORNING. HEAT IS STILL THE MAIN STORY
TODAY.
OTHERWISE, THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DOWNDRAFT CAPE IN THE
1000-1200 J/KG RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. VALUES LIKE THIS
SUGGEST THAT THERE COULD BE SURPRISINGLY STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND
GUSTS WITH RATHER ORDINARY LOOKING THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2025
HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND
COUNTIES AND ADDED MOST OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA FROM SEMINOLE/MILLER
NORTHEAST TO LEE COUNTY AND LOCATIONS EASTWARD. THE GEORGIA
COUNTIES INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY WILL BE LEAST AFFECTED BY LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDICES OF UP TO
112F ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM
NOON-7PM ET OR 11AM-6PM CT.
PROGGED PWAT DISTRIBUTION TODAY IS 2 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA AND WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. RAIN CHANCES TODAY
ARE OVERALL LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN OUR
WESTERN ZONES AT 50%. THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE CONTINUES TO
INFLUENCE THE PATTERN WITH DRIER LOW/MID LEVEL AIR SUPPRESSING
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
RAIN SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE MID/UPPER 70S.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2025
GRADUAL CHANGE IS COMING. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BROADEN DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
OUR NORTH SINKS SOUTH. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
IN MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF RAISING OUR PWATS TO 2-2.5 INCHES
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL BE HOT, THERE MAY
BE SOME RELIEF WITH THE ELEVATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. POPS FOR FRIDAY RANGE FROM
40-80 PERCENT WITH HIGHER VALUES ALONG AND WEST OF THE
TIFT/APALACHICOLA RIVERS. SATURDAY'S POPS HAS A WIDESPREAD 70-90
PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE, WPC HAS PLACED OUR ALABAMA AND CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES
IN A MARGINAL (1 OF 4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON FRIDAY.
SATURDAY WILL HAVE OUR AL AND FL COUNTIES IN A MARGINAL RISK AND
OUR GEORGIA COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT (2 OF 4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL. OVERALL, WE COULD EXPECT 1-2.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FOR THE SHORT TERM.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER, IT WILL STILL BE HOT FOR THE SHORT TERM
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. HEAT INDICES
WILL BE NEAR CRITERIA FOR HEAT ADVISORIES FOR FRIDAY WITH APPARENT
TEMPERATURE VALUES RANGING FROM 106-112 DEGREES. SATURDAY WILL BE
A LITTLE "COOLER" WITH ACTUAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S AND
HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 102-110, HOWEVER LESS WIDESPREAD, THUS
REDUCING THE PROBABILITY OF REQUIRING A HEAT ADVISORY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID-70S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2025
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING AN AUGUST
COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL,
WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE
START OF NEXT WEEK. PWATS WILL STILL BE AT OR ABOVE 2" FOR THIS
PERIOD, SO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A CONCERN FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. POPS RANGE FROM 60-80 PERCENT FOR THE LONG TERM.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MORE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S/LOW 90S, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2025
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED AROUND VLD THIS MORNING AND SHOULD DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. VFR IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION WITH
LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS.
BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ARE FROM ECP TO DHN. ADDED VCTS TO
DHN WITH PROB30S AT ECP/TLH/ABY. OVERALL NOT AS HIGH OF RAIN
CHANCES AS DAYS PAST. BRIEF DIPS TO MVFR POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
HEAVIER CONVECTION.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2025
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 10-15 KTS AND 1-2 FOOT SEAS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FORECAST. DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE HEADING TOWARDS THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF
NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2025
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN HOT THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND
THAT WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN FOR FOLKS OUTSIDE THROUGH
THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW TODAY AS DRIER
MID- LEVEL AIR MOVES IN WITH CHANCES RAMPING UP INTO THE WEEKEND.
FIRE CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW BUT DISPERSIONS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP
UP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2025
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS, A WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL TOTALING 1-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED/NUISANCE
FLOODING ISSUES. THE WPC HAS PLACED OUR REGION IN MARGINAL (1/4)
AND SLIGHT (2/4) RISKS FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOCAL RIVERINE FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 95 76 94 76 / 40 10 70 20
PANAMA CITY 91 80 92 80 / 40 20 60 40
DOTHAN 93 76 93 75 / 50 20 70 20
ALBANY 96 76 95 75 / 40 20 60 40
VALDOSTA 97 76 96 76 / 30 20 50 30
CROSS CITY 93 77 94 76 / 20 0 30 20
APALACHICOLA 90 80 90 80 / 30 10 60 30
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-
426.
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ125>131-143>148-
155>161.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
UPDATE...HANER
NEAR TERM...SCHOLL
SHORT TERM...MONTGOMERY
LONG TERM....MONTGOMERY
AVIATION...SCHOLL
MARINE...MONTGOMERY
FIRE WEATHER...SCHOLL
HYDROLOGY...MONTGOMERY
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