608
FXUS62 KTAE 011416
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1016 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1015 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2025
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED THIS MORNING.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2025
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER OVER
THE REGION TODAY. HOT TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. WITH THE CONTINUATION OF DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 70S YET AGAIN, HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH MAX APPARENT TEMPERATURES REACHING AROUND 112
DEGREES. THE HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR FL AND GA COUNTIES.
AREAS TO THE WEST CAN STILL EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES BUT THE RIDGING
EFFECT IS WEAKER AND THE MOISTURE CONTENT IS HIGHER. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID-70S.
WITH THAT, POPS FOR TODAY RANGE FROM 30-50 PERCENT WITH HIGHEST
VALUES ALONG AND WEST OF THE TIFT/APALACHICOLA RIVERS. PWATS ARE
ABOVE 2 INCHES AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE SLOW MOVING AND/OR
TRAINING, WHICH COULD RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING. THE WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR ALABAMA AND NORTHERN TIER OF
GEORGIA COUNTIES IN A MARGINAL (1 OF 4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN BREAKING DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTH TO SINK SOUTH. THIS WILL REDUCE OUR
HEAT RISK HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, AND INCREASE OUR RAIN CHANCES.
SHORT TERM & LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2025
A TRANSITION TO A WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE SHORT TERM
AND INTO THE LONG TERM AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE AREA AND STALLS. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH FORECAST PWS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES ACROSS
THE AREA AND WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT INTO NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH SOME MULTI-DAY RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SPOTS OF 7+ INCHES
POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG AND NEAR THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WHICH FOR NOW IS
FORECAST TO BE DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA. HOWEVER, IF IT ENDS UP STALLED FURTHER SOUTH OR NORTH,
EXPECT THE SWATH OF HIGHER EXPECTED RAINFALL TO SHIFT ALONG WITH
IT. FOR THE MOST PART, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH MOST ACTIVITY EXPECTED IN THE DAYTIME,
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME MESOSCALE INFLUENCES THAT CAUSE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT TIMES.
FORECAST HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES AT
TIMES, PARTICULARLY IF SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN ACCUMULATE
OVER THE SAME AREA(S). ONCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY STARTS TO
WASH OUT AROUND MIDWEEK, A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN IS EXPECTED.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST MAY ACTUALLY BE QUITE TRICKY AT LEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS INCREASED CLOUD
COVER, CONVECTION, AND EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL ALL HAVE VARYING EFFECTS. AREAS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE
LIKELY TO SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. A SIMILAR BUT NOT QUITE AS
DRAMATIC DIFFERENCE IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR FORECAST LOWS, WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES NEAR 70 NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S TO THE SOUTH.
LONG TERM
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 601 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2025
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL EXCEPT IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO DEVELOP
AROUND 18Z THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY AFFECTING OUR WESTERN TERMINALS
(ECP, DHN, AND TLH). ECP MAY HAVE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP AROUND
DAYBREAK AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE DAY. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS, WHICH COULD LOWER VSBYS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2025
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY
AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NUDGES IN FROM THE BAHAMAS TO THE
SOUTHEAST GULF AND A SUMMER COLD FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE WATERS
ACROSS ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY TUESDAY,
AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS
WILL BRING A MORE SOUTHERLY WIND TO THE NORTHEAST GULF WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2025
DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDICES REACHING 112 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.
ELEVATED DISPERSIONS ARE LIKELY IN OUR GEORGIA DISTRICTS HOWEVER,
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 75 UNITS. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A SUMMER
COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND STALLING. WITH A STALLED FRONT, THE RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD
WETTING RAINS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2025
A TRANSITION TO A WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WEEK. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA IS
FORECAST TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, WITH MULTI-DAY WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES AND
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 7+ POSSIBLE NEAR THE BOUNDARY. THESE HIGHER
TOTALS COULD END UP CAUSING SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES,
PARTICULARLY IF SEVERAL DAYS OF HEAVY RAIN START TO PILE UP ON THE
SAME AREA(S). AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS REMAIN IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS
POINT, BUT RISES ARE LIKELY AS THE ROUNDS OF RAINFALL UNFOLD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 96 77 94 75 / 50 10 90 50
PANAMA CITY 92 80 91 78 / 40 20 70 70
DOTHAN 95 75 92 73 / 50 30 90 60
ALBANY 96 76 92 73 / 40 30 90 80
VALDOSTA 97 76 95 73 / 30 20 90 70
CROSS CITY 94 76 93 76 / 20 10 70 50
APALACHICOLA 90 80 90 79 / 40 10 70 60
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
FLZ009>019-027-112-114-115-118-127-326-426.
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ125>131-144>148-
155>161.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...MONTGOMERY
SHORT TERM...MERRIFIELD
LONG TERM....MERRIFIELD
AVIATION...MONTGOMERY
MARINE...MERRIFIELD
FIRE WEATHER...MONTGOMERY
HYDROLOGY...MERRIFIELD
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