064
FXUS62 KTAE 020020
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
820 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2025
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE GREATER COVERAGE IS CURRENTLY SEPARATED
IN TWO REGIONS. THE FIRST, JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS
CENTRAL AL/GA, IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY
DROPPING SOUTH. ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS IS ACROSS
OUR FL COUNTIES WHERE GREATER LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY AND SEABREEZE
ACTIVITY IS ONGOING. MORE ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY
ACROSS OUR AL/GA COUNTIES AND ACROSS OUR FL COUNTIES WITH HEATING
OF THE DAY WITH MOST ACTIVITY GENERALLY MOVING WEST TO EAST. NO
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED BUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM
REMAINS POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS
BEFORE MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DROP INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US. AS MORE FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT, CONVERGENT FLOW ON THE FRONT, AND INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY. WITH THE RIDGE MOVING OUT AND MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE,
COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR AL/GA
COUNTIES.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR SATURDAY WILL BE THE FLOODING RAIN
CONCERNS. WPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AL/GA COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE FRONT. HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES CAN'T BE RULED OUT
TOMORROW IN A SHORT DURATION. WIDESPREAD FLOODING RAINS ARE NOT
EXPECTED, BUT THESE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES AND ANY TRAINING STORMS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS WHAT IS LEADING TO THE
GREATER CONCERNS FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2025
THE PRESENCE OF A STALLED FRONT AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH DAY. SOME REDUCTION
IN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED LATER NEXT WEEK. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD KEEP US FROM REACHING HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO START
A LITTLE LATER THAN NORMAL, TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE BRIEFLY SHOULD A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM MOVE OVER A TERMINAL. PATCHY FOG MAY IMPACT VSBYS
OVERNIGHT AT TERMINALS ABY/VLD/TLH AS RAIN THIS AFTERNOON MOVED
OVER THESE TERMINALS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE WASN'T THERE TO INCLUDE
EXPLICITLY IN THE TAFS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2025
A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED NEAR THE COAST BY THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAYTIME AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2025
HOT CONDITIONS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS WEEKEND AS RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS OUR AL/GA
COUNTIES AS A FRONT MOVES SOUTH. WITH HIGH CHANCES FOR WETTING
RAINS THIS WEEKEND AND POTENTIALLY INTO
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2025
WPC MARGINAL RISKS FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER THE AREA
PROVIDING FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE EXISTING MOIST UNSTABLE AIR
MASS. WHILE THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING,
ANTICIPATED RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD NOT RESULT IN SUFFICIENT RISES
ON AREA RIVERS WHICH ARE RUNNING PRETTY LOW AT THIS TIME.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 76 94 76 88 / 10 70 40 100
PANAMA CITY 80 91 78 88 / 10 70 70 90
DOTHAN 74 93 73 85 / 20 80 50 100
ALBANY 76 93 73 84 / 30 90 80 90
VALDOSTA 76 96 74 88 / 20 70 70 90
CROSS CITY 77 93 75 92 / 10 70 40 80
APALACHICOLA 80 90 79 88 / 20 60 60 90
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...DOBBS
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM....WOOL
AVIATION...OLIVER
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...DOBBS
HYDROLOGY...WOOL
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