438
FXUS62 KTAE 021906
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
306 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2025
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE
WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD THIS
AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY EARLIER TODAY WAS CENTERED OFFSHORE
AND ALONG COASTAL REGIONS BUT WITH CONTINUED AFTERNOON HEATING WE'RE
NOW SEEING ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
AREA. CLOSER TO A WEAK FRONTAL/CONFLUENCE BOUNDARY ACROSS GEORGIA
AND ALABAMA, ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP WHERE
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EXISTS
CURRENTLY. COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO GROW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY, ESPECIALLY IN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. MAIN CONCERNS THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS WILL BE LOCALIZED FLOODING
POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM WHERE
FAVORABLE STORM MERGERS AND MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS DEVELOP GIVEN THE
STRONG INSTABILITY. GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE,
WITH PWATS WELL OVER 2 INCHES, THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE A LITTLE
MORE MUTED THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HOWEVER, HIGH PWATS
COULD LIKELY LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN
FOR ISOLATED LOCATIONS AND IF FAVORABLE STORM MERGERS CAN FORM
TRAINING BANDS OF STORMS INTO THE EVENING ACROSS OUR ALABAMA/GEORGIA
COUNTIES, AND IT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISING FOR A LOCALIZED AREA TO GET
4 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE MIDNIGHT HOURS
NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWEST. FOR TOMORROW,
MORE OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE EXPECTED. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE TOMORROW COULD BE A WEAK
SURFACE LOW ATTEMPTING TO FORM ACROSS THE REGION AS WEAK DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT, THE APPROACHING FRONT, AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AND
CONVECTION POTENTIALLY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE AREA. MAIN FLOODING CONCERNS WILL AGAIN BE ACROSS OUR
ALABAMA AND GEORGIA COUNTIES, BUT GIVEN SOME OF THE MORE FAVORABLE
INGREDIENTS FOR STORMS TOMORROW AND THE SURFACE LOW, ANOTHER ROUND OF
2 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAN'T BE RULED OUT UNDER THE HEAVIER
STORMS WITH VERY ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2025
A DISTINCT BIFURCATION OR BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL
EXIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD, BETWEEN STRONG
LOBES OF MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER BERMUDA TO OUR
EAST, AND AZ/NM TO OUR WEST.
AT FIRST ON SUNDAY EVENING, THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE WILL BE THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A MID-LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER AL/GA, BUT
THEN THIS FEATURE WILL RETROGRADE WEST TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON
MONDAY, EVOLVING TO FORM A CLEAN BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
FOR MONDAY, THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR OUR LONGITUDE WILL SUPPORT
CONTINUATION OF A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
STALLED OVER SOUTHERN AL/GA. WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND BROAD
BUT LARGE-SCALE LIFT, THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE. BY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES WEST TOWARD LOUISIANA, AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW
POINTED INTO THE PANHANDLE AND SE ALABAMA COULD FOCUS RAIN OVER
THERE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2025
ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
MOVES WEST TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON TUESDAY, WE WILL COME UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE SURFACE-BASED
STATIONARY FRONT WILL WASH OUT AND DISSIPATE. PW VALUES ON
TUESDAY WILL STILL BE VERY MOIST... WELL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES.
WITHOUT AS MUCH LARGE-SCALE LIFT, CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD START
TO DECREASE, BUT THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS STILL POINTS TO ABOVE
NORMAL COVERAGE.
THE REST OF THE WEEK BEYOND TUESDAY WILL FEATURE VERY NORMAL
SUMMER WEATHER. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BE TAMED BY THE BREAK IN THE
RIDGE JUST WEST OF OUR SERVICE AREA, SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S PREVAILING. AFTER TUESDAY,
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES WILL LOWER INTO THE 1.8 TO 2.1 INCH
RANGE, WHICH IS STILL A LITTLE ABOVE THE MEDIAN IN THE SPC
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY AT THIS MOISTEST TIME OF YEAR. DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR WILL VARY WITHIN THE ANEMIC 8-15 KNOT RANGE, SO SINGLE-CELL
PULSE CONVECTION SHOULD BE THE MOST COMMON CONVECTIVE MODE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. MAIN AVIATION HAZARDS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, AFTER 20Z, ACROSS ABY/DHN/VLD AS GREATER TSRA COVERAGE
DEVELOPS. MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS
AND STORMS. WHILE MUCH OF THE STORM COVERAGE SHOULD DROP OFF AFTER
02Z ACROSS INLAND TERMINALS, IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND BEHIND A SAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN
CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BY DAYBREAK, VCTS IS
POSSIBLE AT ECP WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT BEHIND THE FRONT AT DHN/ABY/VLD WITH
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN PLACE UNTIL 16 OR 17Z SUNDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2025
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING, AS A SUMMER COLD FRONT HANGS UP NORTH OF THE WATERS
ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA AND SOUTH GEORGIA. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
ON TUESDAY, SO GRADIENTS WILL BECOME WEAK AND WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2025
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ABUNDANT THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS,
DUE TO A STALLED COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA AND SOUTH GEORGIA
WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS. THE PREVALENCE OF CLOUDS AND RAIN
WILL BRING POCKETS OF POOR AFTERNOON DISPERSION ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THE STALLED FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ON TUESDAY, SO THE
DISTRICTS WILL RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER FROM
WEDNESDAY ON, MEANING SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED
AFTERNOON STORMS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2025
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN THROUGH MONDAY,
ESPECIALLY OVER OUR GEORGIA AND ALABAMA COUNTIES. AN UNCOMMON
EARLY AUGUST COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH GEORGIA AND
SOUTH ALABAMA TONIGHT, THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE
DISSIPATING AFTER THAT. THE AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST. HAVING A
STATIONARY OR SLOW-MOVING BOUNDARY IN PLACE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
A FEW ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH INTENSE RAINFALL RATES,
ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. WHERE CELL
TRAINING OR BACKBUILDING OCCURS CLOSE TO THE STATIONARY FRONT,
THE INTENSE RAINFALL RATES WOULD ADD QUICKLY TO THE RAIN TOTAL.
THE GREATER FLASH FLOODING CONCERN THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE OVER OUR
GEORGIA AND ALABAMA COUNTIES. FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY, POINT LOCATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY GET 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAIN. HOWEVER, CAMS GUIDANCE SHOWS SPOTTY LOCATIONS PICKING UP 5
TO 7 INCHES, AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE SETUP. THIS MUCH
RAIN WOULD CERTAINLY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IF IT
HAPPENS QUICKLY.
FLOOD WATCHES WILL BE A CONSIDERATION THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS, ESPECIALLY AS SHORT-TERM TRENDS HELP US SPATIALLY FOCUS ANY
WATCHES.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 75 88 73 87 / 60 80 70 90
PANAMA CITY 78 89 77 87 / 60 70 80 90
DOTHAN 74 86 71 82 / 70 80 60 90
ALBANY 74 84 71 82 / 80 80 70 90
VALDOSTA 74 88 72 88 / 80 80 70 90
CROSS CITY 75 91 74 92 / 40 70 50 80
APALACHICOLA 79 88 79 88 / 60 70 80 90
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...DOBBS
SHORT TERM...HANER
LONG TERM....HANER
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...HANER
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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