025
FXUS62 KTAE 040120
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
920 PM EDT SUN AUG 3 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 908 PM EDT SUN AUG 3 2025
A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ONGOING THIS
EVENING; ONE IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA INTO HOUSTON COUNTY IN ALABAMA
AND ANOTHER ABOUT TO MOVE ASHORE NEAR STEINHATCHEE. RAINFALL
TOTALS WITH THE BATCH ACROSS GA AND AL HAVE EXCEEDED 4" IN SPOTS
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6"+.
THE STATIONARY FRONT HAS SAGGED BETWEEN BLAKELY, WHICH HAS A NE
WIND AS OF 01Z, AND BAINBRIDGE, WHICH HAS A SE WIND AS OF 01Z, AND
WILL REMAIN THE FOCAL POINT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
TONIGHT. ALSO, THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
SHOWERS AND STORMS BLOSSOMING AFTER 06Z/07Z AND CONTINUING INTO
MONDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1" TO 2" ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT, WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4" TO 6" VERY MUCH
POSSIBLE BEFORE DAWN. INTERESTINGLY, THE EXPERIMENTAL RRFS AND ITS
ENSEMBLES ARE ABOUT AS ROBUST AS THE HRRR. MORE RAIN IS ON TAP
MONDAY.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SUN AUG 3 2025
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY ACTIVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SO
FAR THROUGH THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FLORIDA. FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON, ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS OUR MORE INLAND ZONES IN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA LIKE WE'VE SEEN THE
LAST HOUR OR TWO.
17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK, NEARLY-STATIONARY, SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
EXTENDING ROUGHLY EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND
INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA. EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS FLORIDA IS BEGINNING
TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF INSTABILITY WHILE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND NEAR THE SURFACE
LOW. THESE TRENDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
CONVECTION SLOWLY WANING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BEGIN DEVELOPING QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
SUNRISE ACROSS OUR MARINE ZONES AND ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE WEAK SURFACE LOW. LIKE TODAY, ANOTHER ROUND
OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS BUT FOR MONDAY THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER
RAIN SHOULD BE CENTERED A LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST COMPARED TO WHAT
WE'LL SEE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS MOSTLY DUE TO THE SURFACE LOW AND
BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH IT DRIFTING WEST.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION. A FLOOD WATCH IS ONGOING AND WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE, SOUTHEAST ALABAMA,
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA, AND ALONG PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. THE
AREAS OF GREATEST FLOODING CONCERNS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL LIKELY
BE ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND BACK WEST ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
TOWARDS THE SURFACE LOW. THESE FEATURES GENERALLY RESIDE IN SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA, THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER, AND INTO
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. AT THESE LOCATIONS, WESTERLY FLOW IS ROUGHLY
PARALLEL TO THE FORCING BOUNDARY FOR STORMS, AND FURTHER WEST NEAR THE
SURFACE LOW, VERY SLOW STORM MOTIONS OF 5 KNOTS WILL LIKELY MEAN THE
WELL-ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPTABLE WATERS COULD EASILY YIELD 2 TO 3, AND
POSSIBLY 4, INCH PER HOUR RAIN RATES. THESE AMOUNTS COULD EASILY GIVE
LOCALIZED AREAS UNDER SLOW MOVING STORMS A QUICK 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
RAINFALL, AND FOR EVEN SLOWER MOVING STORMS, OR TRAINING OF STORMS,
ISOLATED TOTALS COULD REACH 8 INCHES. THE 3 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS WOULD
LIKELY BRING LOCALIZED FLOODING TO LOW-LYING ROADS AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. SHOULD LOCATIONS RECEIVE THOSE 8 INCH TOTALS, MORE EXTENSIVE
IMPACTS TO ROADS AND FLOODING OF SOME CREEKS/STREAMS WOULD BECOME
POSSIBLE. WITH THE OVERNIGHT POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THESE HEAVIER RAINS,
PLEASE USE CAUTION IF OUT ON AREA ROADS AND IF YOU CAN'T SEE THE ROAD,
TURN AROUND AND DON'T DROWN.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SUN AUG 3 2025
HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE PANHANDLE AND ALABAMA WIREGRASS. A WEAK SURFACE
LOW OVER NEAR NEW ORLEANS WILL CONTINUE HAVE A STALLED SURFACE
FRONT EXTENDING OUT TO ITS EAST-NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ACT AS A
FOCUS AGAINST THE BACKDROP OF A VERY MOIST AIR MASS FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SUN AUG 3 2025
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL FEATURE VERY NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE SURFACE LOW OVER NEAR NEW ORLEANS WILL WEAKEN,
AND THEN DISSIPATE BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE STALLED SURFACE FRONT
EXTENDING OFF TO ITS EAST-NORTHEAST WILL LOSE DEFINITION AND
DISSIPATE AS WELL. SO WE WILL LOSE OUR SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW,
TURNING LIGHT EASTERLY AND PERSISTING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, AS A
SURFACE HIGH OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND BRIDGES DOWN THE U.S.
EASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE, A WEAK AND NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER
TROUGH WILL CAMP OUT ALONG THE NATCHEZ TRACE (MS TO MIDDLE TN)
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP US IN WEAK SOUTHERLY
MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW, WHILE KEEPING UPPER HEIGHTS TAME, AND
THEREFORE KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM EXCEEDING NORMAL HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 90S. PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES WILL VARY IN THE 1.7
TO 2.1 INCH RANGE, WHICH IS NEAR TO A LITTLE MOISTER THAN NORMAL,
EVEN BY MOIST EARLY AUGUST STANDARDS.
SO THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WE WILL LOSE LARGE-SCALE FORCING DURING
THE LONG TERM, BUT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND AN
UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE TO SUPPORT DAILY ROUNDS OF SCATTERED PM
THUNDER.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 738 PM EDT SUN AUG 3 2025
MOST TERMINALS ARE RAIN-FREE AT TAF ISSUANCE THOUGH A SHOWER IS
ONGOING AT DHN. STARTING TO SEE A FEW TSRA OVER THE MARINE AREA,
WITH AN INTENSE CLUSTER OF STORMS BETWEEN DHN AND ABY. OVERNIGHT,
THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT DHN/ABY/VLD IN NE
FLOW. WILL ALSO BE MONITORING OFFSHORE CONVECTION APPROACHING
ECP/TLH BEFORE SUNRISE. COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST AT TLH/ECP IN
THE MORNING AND THEN SPREADING INLAND BY AFTERNOON. EXPECT IFR
CONDITIONS IN TSRA WITH THESE STORMS ENDING AT TLH/ECP AROUND 20Z
AND OVER THE INTERIOR NEAR 23Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SUN AUG 3 2025
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL UNTIL
WEDNESDAY MORNING, THANKS TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE NORTH-
CENTRAL GULF COAST AND A STALLED FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND
GEORGIA. THOSE FEATURES WILL DISSIPATE LATE WEDNESDAY, AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIDGE IN WEAKLY FROM THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A TURN TO LIGHT AND GENTLE EASTERLY BREEZES FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD. OTHERWISE, LATE NIGHT AND MORNING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, WATERSPOUTS, AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SUN AUG 3 2025
A STALLED COLD FRONT AND A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL
SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THE FRONT
DISSIPATES LATE TUESDAY, ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING. DUE TO THE STABILIZING EFFECT OF CLOUDS, ALONG WITH LIGHT
TRANSPORT WINDS, POCKETS OF POOR AFTERNOON DISPERSION ARE EXPECTED
OVER PANHANDLE AND ALABAMA WIREGRASS DISTRICTS THROUGH TUESDAY. FROM
WEDNESDAY ON, THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDUCE TO MORE TYPICALLY SCATTERED
AFTERNOON COVERAGE, AND TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SUN AUG 3 2025
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MONDAY EVENING FOR ALL BUT
THE SE BIG BEND REGION, DUE TO CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING IN
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS BENEATH SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS.
A STALLED FRONT WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING, THOUGH IT WILL START TO SLOWLY WEAKEN ON
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE TO FOCUS SLOW- MOVING AND TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS IN A RICHLY MOIST AIR MASS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTAIN TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS CAPABLE OF DROPPING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAIN IN A SINGLE HOUR. SO A THUNDERSTORM WOULD ONLY NEED TO
LINGER OVER THE SAME AREA FOR LITTLE MORE THAN AN HOUR TO CAUSE
DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING.
THROUGH THIS EVENING, THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE FOCUSED FROM
DOTHAN TO ALBANY. THE FOCUS OF HEAVIEST RAIN ON MONDAY WILL BE A
LITTLE FURTHER WEST, MAINLY THE PANHANDLE AND ALABAMA WIREGRASS
REGION. ANY LINGERING RAIN OF HYDROLOGIC CONCERN ON TUESDAY WOULD
BE OVER OUR CENTRAL TIME ZONE COUNTIES.
RIVERS WILL CERTAINLY RISE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT MAINSTEM
RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS. HOWEVER, SMALL
STREAMS AND CREEKS, PLUS URBAN AREAS, WILL BE MOST PRONE TO FLASH
FLOODING.
FROM WEDNESDAY ON, WE RETURN TO VERY TYPICAL SETUP OF SCATTERED PM
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL DIAL BACK HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS TO COMMON
SUMMERTIME SHORT-DURATION RUNOFF ISSUES.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 75 89 74 90 / 70 80 50 90
PANAMA CITY 78 88 78 89 / 80 80 80 90
DOTHAN 72 83 72 84 / 70 90 70 90
ALBANY 72 83 72 88 / 80 80 70 90
VALDOSTA 73 89 73 92 / 60 80 40 80
CROSS CITY 74 94 75 93 / 60 70 40 80
APALACHICOLA 79 88 80 89 / 80 80 70 80
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR FLZ007>019-027-108-112-
114-115-118-127-326-426.
GA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR GAZ120>131-142>148-
155>161.
AL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR ALZ065>069.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...DOBBS
SHORT TERM...HANER
LONG TERM....HANER
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...HANER
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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