585
FXUS62 KTAE 201301
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
901 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 900 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2025
THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE, SO NO UPDATES ARE FORTHCOMING THIS
MORNING.
THE LATEST SATELLITE-DERIVED PRECIPITABLE SHOWS A POCKET OF MOIST
AIR BETWEEN MONTGOMERY AL AND ATLANTA GA, MOVING TO THE SOUTH.
THIS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE FLINT AND APALACHICOLA RIVERS. IN
CONTRAST, DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS PRESENT EAST OF THERE ON THE
FAR OUTER PERIPHERY OF ERIN'S INFLUENCE. THESE THINGS LINE UP WELL
WITH THE FORECAST FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2025
AS HURRICANE ERIN RECURVES WELL EAST OF THE FL/GA COAST TODAY, THE
REGION WILL BE WITHIN A NORTHERLY LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW, ALONG WITH
INCREASED SUBSIDENCE GENERALLY EAST OF THE APALACHICOLA AND FLINT
RIVERS. AS SUCH, A DICHOTOMY IN PWATS, WITH ANOMALOUSLY LOW VALUES
EAST AND HIGHER VALUES WEST, WHICH WAS FACTORED INTO POPS. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S, ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS DECREASE DURING THE
DAY DUE TO TURBULENT MIXING, SO HEAT INDICES SHOULD BE MANAGEABLE.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2025
BY THURSDAY, HURRICANE ERIN WILL BE OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA. LOCALLY, LIGHT WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING
SOUTH INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL POOL AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES. THE LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW
WILL ALSO ALLOW THE SEABREEZE TO PENETRATE FURTHER INLAND WITH
RAIN CHANCES RANGING FROM 40-70 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX
VALUES IN THE 101-106 RANGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MUGGY,
GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S.
ON FRIDAY, THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SAG A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH
INTO THE AREA WITH A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH NEAR 2 INCHES,
AND SOME POCKETS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. THE WPC HAS A
MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN PLACE ON FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AROUND 90 GIVEN THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND STORM COVERAGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN
MUGGY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2025
ABOVE AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OVER 2 INCHES. SOME POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN REMAIN POSSIBLE. BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK, RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS SOME DRIER AIR
MAKES IT INTO THE AREA WITH A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE HELD DOWN
THIS WEEKEND DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN, RANGING FROM THE MID
80S TO NEAR 90. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MUGGY IN THE 70S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE COULD SEE
SOME LOWS IN THE 60S DIPPING INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH THE
DRIER AIRMASS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 600 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2025
SHRA/TSRA AT DHN AND ECP AND TEMPO GROUPS W/ PROB30'S FURTHER
EAST AT ABY AND TLH IN THE 19-23Z TIME FRAME. CANNOT RULE OUT
BRIEF MVFR WITH TSRA, OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTH
WINDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ECP WHERE THEY BACK AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2025
GENTLE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AWAY FROM SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HURRICANE ERIN WILL RECURVE WELL EAST OF FLORIDA. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. BRIEFLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE, SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEAR 1 FOOT WITH SEASONABLY LIGHT WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2025
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. NORTHERLY TRANSPORT
WINDS TODAY BECOME WEST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH DISPERSIONS ON THURSDAY AWAY FROM THE
GULF COAST.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2025
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS A
SURFACE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE REGION. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED, MAINLY ON FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH SOME FLOODING OF
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS POSSIBLE. THE WPC HAS OUTLOOKED MOST OF THE AREA
FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DURING THAT TIME.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 93 75 93 75 / 20 10 60 20
PANAMA CITY 92 78 91 78 / 40 10 50 30
DOTHAN 93 74 94 73 / 40 10 50 20
ALBANY 93 74 94 74 / 20 10 40 30
VALDOSTA 93 74 94 74 / 20 10 40 30
CROSS CITY 94 75 94 76 / 20 10 60 30
APALACHICOLA 90 78 89 79 / 20 10 50 30
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...DVD
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