772
FXUS62 KTAE 201826
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
226 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2025
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE
WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2025
NORTHERLY LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
AFTERNOON, AS LARGE HURRICANE ERIN LIFTS NORTHWARD OVER THE
ATLANTIC ABOUT 450 TO 500 MILES EAST OF THE GEORGIA COAST. SO
LOOKING NORTH, A POCKET OF HIGHER MOISTURE AIR IS MOVING
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN MONTGOMERY AL AND COLUMBUS GA, AND REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAICS ARE SHOWING A STRONGER CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING
SOUTH IN TANDEM WITH THIS POCKET OF MOISTER AIR. THOUGH SHOWERS
ARE POPPING UP ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE AREA, IT WILL BE
COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE FLINT AND APALACHICOLA RIVERS THAT
ARE IN LINE FOR THE HIGHEST COVERAGE AND STRONGER STORMS INTO
THIS EVENING.
LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, HURRICANE ERIN WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH
NORTHEAST THAT WE WILL LOSE ANY OF ITS INFLUENCE ON LOW-MID LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. INSTEAD, A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT
WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN MS/AL, WITH WESTERLY STEERING FLOW
DEVELOPING TO ITS SOUTH ACROSS OUR SERVICE AREA. THE SOUTHERN
FRINGE OF A MOISTURE AXIS ALONG THE FRONT WILL SPREAD INTO THE
REGION. WE WILL ALSO BE DOWNWIND OF POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH
AXIS FROM NORTHERN GEORGIA TO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA, WHICH WILL BE A
FAVORED AREA FOR LARGER SCALE LIFT. SO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, COMPARED
WITH TODAY.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2025
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
APPROACHING THE REGION. WITH LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE,
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP STORMY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO PROVIDE GOOD
SUPPORT FOR WHAT IS DEPICTED IN THE NBM OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SHOWING
HIGH POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
THEN OVER THE LAND AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN WITH A FRONTAL ZONE IN THE AREA TENDS TO BE AN EARLY START
TO CONVECTION OVER LAND, SO EXPECT MAXTS ON SATURDAY TO BE HELD BACK
BY ALL THE CLOUDINESS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2025
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, THE H5 PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFIES
MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND
APALACHIANS. THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL ZONE MORE TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST BEFORE IT LIKELY STALLS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA BY MONDAY. THE
RESULT WILL BE ANOTHER GENERALLY WET DAY ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY
BEFORE A PATTERN SHIFT WITH DRY NW FLOW ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
EXPECT LITTLE TO NO STORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION ON MON/TUE. IN
FACT, IT'S POSSIBLE THAT THIS PATTERN WILL DELIVER A BRIEF RESPITE
FROM THE HUMIDITY OF THE SUMMER, AS DEWPOINTS DURING THE AFTERNOON
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY COULD DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S. SO EVEN WITH
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S, HEAT INDICIES
WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY
AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES THROUGH THE LARGER LONGWAVE TROUGH,
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AGAIN ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2025
POP-UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERTORMS ARE MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY, SUPPORTING SHOWER AND/OR THUNDER MENTION AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AT 1820Z, A STRONGER CLUSTER OF
STORMS WAS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL ALABAMA, SO THIS
COULD IMPACT DHN AND PERHAPS ECP DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. HAVE INCLUDED A FEW
HOURS OF 5SM AT VLD AROUND SUNRISE, LIKE WE HAVE OBSERVED ON OTHER
MORNINGS RECENTLY. IN SUMMER, FOG IS SOMETIMES DEPENDENT ON
WHETHER A LOCATION GOT RAIN ON THE PRECEDING AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2025
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO A WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS ERIN DEPARTS UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THIS WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND WILL
ACCOMPANY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STORMS OVER THE MARINE
AREA. BY MONDAY A FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MARINE AREA
SHIFTING WINDS TO AN OFFSHORE DIRECTION AND PROVIDING A BRIEF
RESPITE FROM THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2025
AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE STARTING
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY, AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT
SAGS SOUTH THROUGH ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. WETTING RAINS WILL BE
COMMON, AND THE AIR MASS WILL BE MOIST.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2025
IN THE NEAR TERM THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS.
HOWEVER, BY FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY, THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING IN
URBAN ENVIRONMENTS. THE REGION IS IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF
4) FOR FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ASIDE FROM THE FLASH
FLOOD RISK, NO RIVERINE FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AS WIDESPREAD
RAIN TOTALS WILL NOT PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES. DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN BY MONDAY, ENDING ANY FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 75 92 75 90 / 10 60 20 80
PANAMA CITY 78 91 77 89 / 10 50 30 70
DOTHAN 74 93 73 89 / 20 60 20 70
ALBANY 74 94 74 89 / 10 60 30 80
VALDOSTA 74 94 74 91 / 10 50 30 80
CROSS CITY 75 93 75 91 / 20 50 30 80
APALACHICOLA 78 89 79 87 / 20 40 20 70
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HANER
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM....GODSEY
AVIATION...HANER
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...HANER
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY
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