322
FXUS62 KTAE 211418
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1018 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2025
12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A "COLD" FRONT (MORE A MOISTURE/WIND
DIRECTION DISCONTINUITY) ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING
EXTENDING FROM NEAR ATLANTA INTO EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. TO THE
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING WERE IN THE UPPER
60S, WHILE ACROSS OUR REGION, THE HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE A
FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER LATER THIS WEEKEND WITH AN INCREASE IN POP
CHANCES.
BUT IN THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM, ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A
WEAK MCV ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA MOVING SLOWLY TO THE SSE. WITH THE
1000-700 MB MEAN LAYER FLOW OUT OF THE WEST SOUTHWEST TODAY,
EXPECT MORE INTRUSION INLAND OF THE SEA BREEZE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.
THE PRESENCE OF THE MCV SHOULD ONLY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
IN OUR WESTERN CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE DERIVED PWS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE ALREADY ABOVE 2 INCHES, WHILE RAOBS FROM JAX AND
LIX ARE A LITTLE LOWER IN THE 1.75-1.85 IN. RANGE. THE SLOW
1000-700 MB FLOW, WHICH IS AROUND 5 KT, AND THE MOIST AIRMASS WILL
LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY FROM ANY OF THE STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. SOME LOCATIONS COULD EASILY PICK UP AS MUCH AS 3-4
INCHES OF RAIN IN AN HOUR IN THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT WHICH COULD
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. LOW TO MID LEVEL RATES ARE NOT ESPECIALLY
STEEP, SO DCAPE VALUES AREN'T AS SUPPORTIVE AS YESTERDAY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER, A FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE
STRONG.
THE ONLY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY WERE TO DELAY THE
ONSET OF THE HIGHEST POPS TIL 19-20Z ACROSS THE REGION IN LINE
WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS THROUGH 14Z
WHICH SHOW MUCH OF THE REGION CLOUD FREE.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2025
THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POSSIBLY LEADING TO FLOODING.
WEAK LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WEST-SOUTHWEST TODAY ALLOWING THE
SEABREEZE TO PENETRATE INLAND. MID-LEVEL TROUGHING WITH A SURFACE
REFLECTION WILL ALSO BE PRESENT AS PWATS INCREASE WITHIN GREATER
MERIDIONAL FLOW, WITH A 60% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING THE 90TH PERCENTILE
(2.1-2.15"). THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT IS WEAK, GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST
AROUND 5 KTS IN THE CLOUD LAYER. AS A RESULT, BOTH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH RAINFALL RATES WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AS THEY
PROPAGATE NORTHWARD THIS AFTN AND EVENING. MUCH OF THE REGION FROM
AROUND THE US-84 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD WILL BE AT RISK FOR LOCALLY
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH POCKETS OF 3-5 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE, WHICH
MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IF THEY OCCUR IN
URBAN CENTERS. OTHERWISE, MARGINALLY HIGH DCAPE AND A SUBTLE HAIL
PROFILE MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS OF 40-50 MPH
AND SMALL HAIL ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE ROBUST CORES.
OVERALL, POPS WERE INCREASED OVER GUIDANCE IN COLLABORATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ADJUSTED BELOW GUIDANCE
DUE TO PRECIP COVERAGE. NONETHELESS, HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S WILL
RESULT IN SUB-ADVISORY HEAT INDICES OF 100-105F. IN ADDITION,
PATCHY FOG LIKELY IN SPOTS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2025
ON FRIDAY, THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SAG A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH
INTO THE AREA WITH A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH NEAR 2 INCHES,
AND SOME POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING, MAINLY IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AROUND 90 GIVEN THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND STORM COVERAGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MUGGY IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S.
ON SATURDAY, SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND 2 INCHES. HIGH RAIN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AGAIN WITH POCKETS
OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLER DUE TO ALL THE CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN COVERAGE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2025
ABOVE AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A
STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OVER 2 INCHES. SOME POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN REMAIN POSSIBLE. BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK, RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS SOME DRIER AIR
MAKES IT INTO THE AREA WITH A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE HELD DOWN ON
SUNDAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN, RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO
NEAR 90. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MUGGY IN THE 70S THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER, BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, WE COULD
SEE SOME LOWS IN THE 60S DIPPING INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH THE
DRIER AIRMASS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 600 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2025
BRIEF FOG UNTIL 14Z AT DHN AND POSSIBLY VLD, OTHERWISE VFR TO START.
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD TSRA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING, PARTICULARLY DHN/TLH AND POSSIBLY VLD, WITH BRIEF MVFR/
IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS.
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER UNTIL 03-04Z INVOF ABY AND DHN.
LIGHT WEST AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES WEST AND SOUTHWESTERLY
DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE
IN MVFR FOG TO INCLUDE AT ABY, DHN, AND VLD; WILL ALSO INDICATE
LOWER SCT CIGS, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT MVFR/IFR CIGS TOWARD SUNRISE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2025
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED STARTING ON FRIDAY AND LASTING THROUGH
SUNDAY. BY MONDAY, A FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MARINE AREA
SHIFTING WINDS TO AN OFFSHORE DIRECTION AND PROVIDING A DRIER
AIRMASS WITH A DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF STORMS. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH
SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FEET. HOWEVER, LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR STORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2025
AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES STARTING TODAY
AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY, AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD. OUTSIDE OF BRIEFLY ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE
VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS, THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POCKETS OF
POOR DISPERSION EACH AFTERNOON INTO THIS WEEKEND, DUE TO LOWER
MIXING HEIGHTS AND GENERALLY WEAK WESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS. LOOKING
AHEAD, A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS FILTERS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2025
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
AS A SURFACE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE REGION. LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED, AND FLASH FLOODING IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS IS POSSIBLE. ASIDE FROM THE FLASH FLOOD RISK, NO RIVERINE
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AS WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN BY
MONDAY, ENDING ANY FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 92 74 91 74 / 70 50 80 40
PANAMA CITY 90 77 90 76 / 50 20 70 50
DOTHAN 90 73 90 72 / 60 50 70 40
ALBANY 93 74 91 73 / 60 50 80 50
VALDOSTA 93 73 92 73 / 60 50 80 60
CROSS CITY 92 74 91 74 / 50 40 90 60
APALACHICOLA 89 78 88 77 / 50 20 70 50
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
UPDATE...GODSEY
NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...DVD
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