045
FXUS62 KTAE 211833
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
233 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2025
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2025
SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY, OUR LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW HAS TURNED FROM
NORTHERLY TO BECOME WEAK WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS HAS
OCCURRED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS SLOWLY SAGGING
SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. SATELLITE-DERIVED PW
IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY MOIST AIR MASS OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION,
WITH PW VALUES IN THE 1.9 TO 2.2 INCH RANGE.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH FRIDAY
BENEATH A LENGTHY 500 MB TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM NC ALL THE WAY
BACK TO COASTAL TX. SO THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO INTERACT
WITH A FEW DIFFERENT SOURCES OF LIFT, I.E. THE SEABREEZE, THE UPPER
TROUGH, AND PROXIMITY OF THE SAGGING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF
AL AND GA.
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN ON FRIDAY. PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES WILL DRIVE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES BENEATH STORM CORES.
WEAK WESTERLY FLOW WILL RUN PARALLEL TO BOTH THE SEABREEZE FRONT
OVER FLORIDA AND THE COLD FRONT OVER AL/GA. THIS WILL SUPPORT SOME
TRAINING AND BACKBUILDING OF SLOW-MOVING STORMS. CAMS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT AN ISOLATED SPOT OR TWO COULD GET 5-6 INCHES OF RAIN,
WITHIN THE PART OF SOUTH GEORGIA BOUNDED BY THE WPC SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. NUISANCE FLOODING IS LIKELY, AND ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2025
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
MARINE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SATURDAY, AS THE BOUNDARY ONLY DROPS
SLIGHTLY SOUTH, SOME ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OF THE
LAND AREA IS EXPECTED AS SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ARRIVES AS A
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BEGINS TO AMPLIFY. EVEN WITH THIS
INFLUENCE, LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK, SO STORM MOTIONS
ON SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE SLOW. THUS, THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL
CONTINUE ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2025
BY SUNDAY, THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND WITH THE LARGER EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AMPLIFYING AND
SPREADING EASTWARD, SOME DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE REGION, REDUCING RAIN CHANCES THERE, WHILE
KEEPING THEM QUITE ACTIVE IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THINGS WILL CHANGE MARKEDLY BY MONDAY AS THE TROUGH BECOMES
ESTABLISHED, WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION. AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES, THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH
TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO DROP INTO
THE LOWER 60S FOR MANY INLAND AREAS, WHICH WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES
IN CHECK.
BY WEDNESDAY ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST,
BRINGING A RETURN TO A MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN FOR THE REGION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2025
THE AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST AND SEASONABLY UNSTABLE, AND LOW-MID
LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME WEAKLY SOUTHWEST-WEST AS A COLD FRONT SAGS
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. DEEP, MOIST CONVECTION
IS FIRING OFF ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GREATEST CONCENTRATION SO
FAR NEAR ECP DUE TO THE SEABREEZE FRONT. STORMS WILL EXPAND INLAND
AND AFFECT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.
STORMS WILL FADE DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET, AS THERMAL
LIFT AND SEABREEZE LIFT CEASES.
IN THE MOIST AIR MASS, LOOK FOR MVFR AND IFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT, WITH LIFTING OF THE CIGS BEGINNING ABOUT 2 HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2025
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED STARTING ON FRIDAY AND LASTING THROUGH
SUNDAY. BY MONDAY, A FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MARINE AREA
SHIFTING WINDS TO AN OFFSHORE DIRECTION AND PROVIDING A DRIER
AIRMASS WITH A DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF STORMS. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH
SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FEET. HOWEVER, LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR STORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2025
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH ALABAMA AND GEORGIA
THROUGH SATURDAY. IT WILL THEN CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH OF THE
FLORIDA STATE LINE AROUND SUNDAY, THEN EXIT SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
ON MONDAY. PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT ABUNDANT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING
RAIN FOR MANY DISTRICTS THROUGH SATURDAY. THROUGH SATURDAY, THE
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND RAIN-COOLED AIR WILL SUPPORT POCKETS OF POOR
DISPERSION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTER THE WEEKEND, A DRIER
CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WILL SPREAD IN ON MONDAY, THEN PERSIST NEXT
TUESDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2025
WITH A HIGH PW ENVIRONMENT AND SLOW STORM MOTION, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PORTIONS OF THE REGION ARE IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING ON FRIDAY AND THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BE EXPANDED IN LATER
OUTLOOKS AND EVEN INTO SATURDAY. LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4-6
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BUT WIDESPREAD AREAL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS. AS
A RESULT, RIVERINE FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN. THE MAIN THREAT
THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE FLASH FLOODING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 75 91 74 88 / 30 80 50 90
PANAMA CITY 77 90 76 88 / 30 60 50 80
DOTHAN 73 89 72 85 / 30 80 50 80
ALBANY 74 90 72 85 / 40 80 60 80
VALDOSTA 73 91 73 88 / 40 80 60 90
CROSS CITY 75 90 74 90 / 40 80 60 90
APALACHICOLA 78 88 77 87 / 20 60 50 80
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HANER
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM....GODSEY
AVIATION...HANER
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...HANER
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY
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