832
FXUS62 KTAE 221434
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1034 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1016 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2025
14 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE
FORECAST AREA. SURFACE FLOW IS VERY WEAK ACROSS THE AREA.
INTERESTINGLY, THERE IS LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AT A FEW SITES
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA, WITH WEAK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
IN FLORIDA. SATELLITE DERIVED PWS THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH
GEORGIA GENERALLY ARE IN THE 2.0-2.2 INCH RANGE, WHICH IS ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH SUCH A MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR MASS CONVERGENCE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA, IT IS NO SURPRISE THAT MOST OF THE
CONVECTIVE GUIDANCE IS FAVORING HEAVY PRECIPITATION ALONG A LINE
FROM ALBANY TO FITZGERALD. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS WILL
FURTHER SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AS A RESULT, ISSUED A
FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTH GEORGIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES IS POSSIBLE.
OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL POSSIBLE
WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED 4 INCH AMOUNTS COULD
OCCUR.
GIVEN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT, ONLY A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED TODAY. THE PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT
TODAY, WHICH WITHIN THE WATCH AREA COULD BE CONSIDERABLE.
MADE SOME UPDATES TO THE POPS AND QPF TO BETTER ALIGN WITH THE
LATEST GUIDANCE. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO
OTHER ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 209 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2025
IN THE SYNOPTIC VIEW, THERE IS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF 597DM
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WELL TO OUR WEST. NORTHEAST OF US IS
HURRICANE ERIN OFF OF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTS. THERE
IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER US EXTENDING FROM ERIN. ALONG THE EDGE
OF THE TROUGH, THERE IS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT IN NORTHERN ALABAMA
AND GEORGIA. THIS FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT
AND IS FORECAST TO MAKE IT TO THE FLORIDA STATE LINE BY SATURDAY
MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THERE WILL BE MANY LIFTING MECHANISMS SUCH AS:
SEABREEZE, COLD FRONT, AND OVERALL TROUGHING. WITH ANY OF THE STORMS
THAT DEVELOP, HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN DUE TO WIDESPREAD
PWAT VALUES AROUND 2.25 INCHES. ALONG WITH THAT, THERE IS A FLOODING
RISK AS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE SLOW STEERING FLOW AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING. THE WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR CENTRAL GEORGIA
COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, AND THE REST OF
OUR CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK. POPS FOR TODAY RANGE FROM 70-80 PERCENT,
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM TO THE LOWER 90S THIS AFTERNOON;
HOWEVER WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S, HEAT INDICES WILL FEEL NEAR
AND AROUND 100. YET THE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA (108 DEGREES). THE LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
LOW 70S, AND PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 209 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2025
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SAGS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH ON SATURDAY,
CLOSER TO THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN RATHER RIPE
WITH HIGH PWAT VALUES AROUND 2 TO 2.2 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
THUS, SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
THREAT AS CONVECTION FOCUSES ALONG THE FRONT AND THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES, WHICH MAY COLLIDE OVER NORTH FLORIDA OR FAR SOUTH
GEORGIA. GIVEN THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE PLUS THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW
BEING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY, STORMS WILL BE SLOW-MOVING
AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREAS. THIS COULD LEAD
TO A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
ON SUNDAY, THE FRONT SAGS JUST A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10, AND THE ENVIRONMENT
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED. A
CONTINUED LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY FOR
COASTAL LOCATIONS SUNDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN CHECK THIS WEEKEND THANKS TO THE
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND HIGH COVERAGE OF RAIN, ONLY RISING TO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2025
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AS TROUGHING DIGS
OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL START LOWERING RAIN CHANCES MONDAY
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES NEAR THE FORGOTTEN COAST AND INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN BIG BEND. PWATS CRASH ON TUESDAY WITH THE MEAN LREF
PWATS ONLY IN THE 1.2 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE. DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MANY AREAS, GIVING US MUCH WELCOME RELIEF IN
TERMS OF HUMIDITY AND HEAT INDICES. THIS CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY
BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS LATER IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER
APPROACHING FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, AND
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 616 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2025
PATCHY FOG AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS WHAT WE ARE
SEEING THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BY AROUND 14Z,
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY MOVE FURTHER INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. VSBYS WILL BE LOWERED WITH THE HEAVIER STORMS THAT MOVE
OVER THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 209 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2025
WINDS WILL PRIMARILY BE OUT OF THE WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST THIS
WEEKEND AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT DRAPED OVER THE SOUTHEAST US AND GULF
COAST. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND. BY MONDAY, WINDS WILL TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY AS A FRONT CLEARS THE MARINE AREA,
BRINGING A REDUCTION TO SHOWERS AND STORMS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS AROUND 1 TO 2
FEET. WINDS AND WAVES COULD BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 209 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2025
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE RAIN-COOLED AIR AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP DISPERSIONS LOW,
AND POCKETS OF POOR DISPERSIONS ARE LIKELY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ITS PASSAGE BY MONDAY,
ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. EXPECT DRIER
CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH DISPERSIONS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 209 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2025
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA BEFORE BEING CLEARED OUT OF OUR AREA BY A
STRONGER FRONT MONDAY. A HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENT WILL PERSIST ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AMID HIGH RAINFALL RATES. THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW
WILL ALSO BE WEAK AND GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY,
WHICH COULD LEAD TO SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND POTENTIAL TRAINING OF
STORMS. WHILE WIDESPREAD AREAL TOTALS ARE AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, LOCALIZED TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY WHERE STORMS MOVE LITTLE OR BACKBUILD. IN FACT, THE HREF
PROBABILITIES FOR MORE THAN 3 INCHES WITHIN 25 MILES OF A POINT ARE
GREATER THAN 50% FOR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND UP INTO SOUTH GEORGIA. THE
GREATEST CHANCE IS ALONG AND EAST OF I-75. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS
AROUND 2 TO 3 INCHES IN AN HOUR OR ABOUT 2.5 TO 4 INCHES WITHIN 3
HOURS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE
STORMS MOVE LITTLE AND/OR BACKBUILD.
WIDESPREAD RIVERINE CONCERNS ARE CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATED, BUT
WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH ANY OF THE SMALLER BASINS FOR QUICK RISES.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 91 74 86 73 / 80 50 90 30
PANAMA CITY 89 76 87 75 / 70 50 80 50
DOTHAN 88 72 85 72 / 80 50 80 30
ALBANY 90 72 84 72 / 90 70 90 30
VALDOSTA 91 73 87 72 / 90 70 90 40
CROSS CITY 91 74 90 75 / 80 50 90 50
APALACHICOLA 89 77 86 76 / 70 50 90 50
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
FOR GAZ125>131-147-148.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
UPDATE...GODSEY
NEAR TERM...MONTGOMERY
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...MONTGOMERY
MARINE...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...MONTGOMERY
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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