330
FXUS62 KTAE 240536
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
136 AM EDT SUN AUG 24 2025
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT SUN AUG 24 2025
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT HAS BEEN THE FOCUS OF OUR ACTIVE
WEATHER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ONE MORE
DAY. THE FRONT WILL SLIP OFFSHORE THIS MORNING BEFORE RETURNING
NORTHWARD WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. THUS, FOR MUCH OF THIS
MORNING, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE WATERS, MAYBE
INCHING UP TO APALACHICOLA AND CROSS CITY. BY THIS AFTERNOON, THE
FRONT AND SEA BREEZE WILL MAKE SOME INLAND PROGRESS, BUT WILL
STOP SOMEWHERE NEAR I-10. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT, PWATS WILL
STILL BE AROUND 1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
IN NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH PWATS DOWN TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES.
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE FLORIDA
COUNTIES TODAY, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE A BIT LOWER THAN PAST DAYS
(AROUND 40- 60%). FARTHER NORTH, SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE, BUT RAIN CHANCES ARE ONLY AROUND 20-30%. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA COUNTIES TODAY, WITH
TOTALS LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 2-4 INCHES. THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE SOME NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING. MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
LAND WILL END WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNSET.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, AND LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT SUN AUG 24 2025
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT HAS PROVIDED US WITH PLENTIFUL RAIN
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL FINALLY BEGIN COMPLETING ITS PASSAGE
THROUGH THE REGION AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT TAKES OVER. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A 1025MB SURFACE HIGH FROM
THE CANADIAN BORDER. BEHIND THE FRONT, MUCH DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED
TO FILTER IN. PWATS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 1-1.5
INCHES, AND MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OVER THE MARINE
ZONES. TUESDAY AFTERNOON PWATS WILL BE AROUND 0.5-1 INCH, WHICH IS
LESS THAN THE 10TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IT WILL FEEL
NOTICEABLY DRIER WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.
HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S/LOW 90S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S.
SO, AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY, POPS WILL BE 30% AND
LESS FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10. THE COASTAL REGIONS MAY
HAVE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
SEABREEZE CONVECTION AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WILL BE COMPLETING ITS PASSAGE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT,
LOWERING POPS TO 10% AND LESS BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT SUN AUG 24 2025
THE PATTERN ESTABLISHED IN THE SHORT TERM WILL HOLD UNTIL MID-
LATE WEEK. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL LIFT NORTH, ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE
RETURN WITH EASTERLY FLOW AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND. POPS RETURN
IN A MORE DIURNAL FASHION WITH AFTERNOON CHANCES AROUND 30-50
PERCENT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES FOR THE LONG TERM
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 DEGREES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT SUN AUG 24 2025
TSRA CONTINUES JUST SOUTH OF ECP FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
OTHERWISE, CIGS WILL DROP TO IFR OR LIFR WITH SOME MVFR/IFR VSBYS
AS ALL TAF SITES BUT ECP THIS MORNING. THIS WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT
DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS AND BY 17Z, ALL SITES WILL RETURN TO
VFR. TSRA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO ECP, TLH, AND
VLD, THOUGH NORTHWARD EXTENT IS UNCERTAIN. THUS, HAVE VCTS AT ECP
WITH PROB30S FOR TSRA AT TLH AND VLD. TSRA WILL LIKELY REMAIN
AWAY FROM DHN AND ABY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT SUN AUG 24 2025
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY,
KEEPING NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS UNTIL THEN.
PRIOR TO THE FRONT'S ARRIVAL, SEAS WILL BE AROUND 1-2 FEET WITH
GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY/WESTERLY WINDS OF 10 KTS. THE FIRST FRONT
WILL ARRIVE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY, SHIFTING THE WINDS
NORTHERLY, AND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY WILL
STRENGTHEN THE WINDS TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS FROM THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST. SEAS WILL INCREASE A LITTLE TO 1-3 FEET AND WINDS WILL
SLOWLY BECOME MORE EASTERLY AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT SUN AUG 24 2025
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE FLORIDA ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, DISPERSIONS WILL BE POOR NEAR THE I-75
CORRIDOR AND FAIR ELSEWHERE. TRANSPORT WINDS TODAY WILL BE
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 5-10 MPH. A COLD FRONT CLEARS THE
AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN. DISPERSIONS WILL BE GOOD AREA-WIDE BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TRANSPORT WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT. MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 40S MONDAY AND INTO THE
30S ON TUESDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT SUN AUG 24 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY WITH THE FLORIDA SE BIG BEND IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. 1-2 MORE INCHES COULD FALL WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS. LOCAL RIVERS IN THE AREA (OCHLOCKONEE AND
WITHLACOOCHEE) HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RISE INTO ACTION STAGE, WITH
A VERY LOW CHANCE OF ENTERING INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE. FOLLOWING
MONDAY'S COLD FRONT, RAIN CHANCES DROP TO 10% AND LESS AS MUCH
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO RETURN
LATE IN THE WEEK.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 89 72 91 68 / 40 20 30 0
PANAMA CITY 91 75 92 71 / 40 20 20 10
DOTHAN 89 70 90 65 / 20 10 10 0
ALBANY 87 71 91 65 / 30 20 10 0
VALDOSTA 88 71 91 67 / 40 20 20 0
CROSS CITY 89 73 91 72 / 60 30 60 10
APALACHICOLA 88 76 90 73 / 50 30 40 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...YOUNG
SHORT TERM...MONTGOMERY
LONG TERM....MONTGOMERY
AVIATION...YOUNG
MARINE...MONTGOMERY
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
HYDROLOGY...MONTGOMERY
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