918
FXUS62 KTAE 250535
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
135 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2025
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2025
OVERNIGHT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD
FRONT OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
ARRIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WIREGRASS BEFORE SWEEPING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL HELP CONFINE
RAIN CHANCES TO THE FAR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF OUR
AREA, MAINLY FROM PANAMA CITY TO VALDOSTA SOUTHWARD. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE FORGOTTEN COAST OVER TO THE SOUTHEAST BIG
BEND, BUT EVEN THEN, CHANCES ARE ONLY AROUND 40-50% AT MOST.
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TODAY COULD HAVE SOME GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL
GIVEN A LITTLE EXTRA MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENHANCING THE DCAPE VALUES.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S. DEW POINTS WILL
FALL BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON AND 50S TONIGHT
ACROSS THE WIREGRASS TO THE FLINT VALLEY, GRADUALLY FILTERING IN
ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
60S ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TO THE LOWER 70S
NEAR THE COAST.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2025
FOR THE START OF THE TERM, A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH WILL
REINFORCE THE COOLER/DRIER AIR THAT FILTERED INTO THE REGION ON
MONDAY. DEW POINTS TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S IN OUR
FL COUNTIES, AND UPPER 50S FOR OUR GA AND AL COUNTIES. THEY WILL
HOVER AROUND 60 DEGREES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH PWATS AROUND 1
INCH. THIS WILL KEEP POPS TO NEARLY ZERO WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
SE BIG BEND, WITH ABOUT A 20% CHANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE HIGH PUSH FURTHER SOUTH, DRYING US OUT
FURTHER BY KEEPING THE RAIN CHANCES AT BAY. THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK, MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE COASTAL REGIONS BEGINNING
THURSDAY AND BEGIN TO MOVE FURTHER INLAND AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE
WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. EASTERLY FLOW
WILL THEN TAKE OVER, INCREASING OUR RAIN CHANCES TO 40-60 PERCENT
FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. PWATS WILL INCREASE BACK TO ABOVE 2
INCHES; POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE WPC HIGHLIGHTED OUR AL AND GA COUNTIES IN A MARGINAL
(LEVEL 1 OF 4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR DAY 5 (FRIDAY).
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S TO START THE TERM, THEN
"COOL" TO THE UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE TERM. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. DEW POINTS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 60S FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE TERM.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2025
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT ALL THE TERMINALS EXCEPT ECP LATER
TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MVFR VSBYS AND PERHAPS
IFR/LIFR CIGS WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN FOG. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL. ISOLATED TSRA WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THE
HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE NEAR ECP WHERE A PROB30 GROUP IS INCLUDED.
TLH AND VLD ARE ON THE EDGE OF RAIN CHANCES, BUT WILL MONITOR
MODEL GUIDANCE FOR ANY ADDITION TO THE LATER TAF CYCLES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2025
A COLD FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR THAT BEGAN
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. POPS WILL BE REDUCED TO
AROUND 30% AND LESS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH MIDWEEK AT ABOUT 10-15 KTS, WITH
BRIEF OVERNIGHT PERIODS WHERE CAUTIONARY-LEVEL WINDS WEST OF
APALACHICOLA WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT
EASTWARD, ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE RETURN AND AN INCREASE IN POPS FOR
THE WEEKEND AND EASTERLY WINDS AT AROUND 10 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2025
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, WESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS AROUND 10 MPH TODAY WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DISPERSIONS WILL
BE GOOD FOR MOST AREAS EACH AFTERNOON. MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP
INTO THE 30S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. GIVEN RECENT
WET CONDITIONS, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2025
FOLLOWING MONDAY'S COLD FRONT, DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION, LIMITING THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
A SECOND FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON TUESDAY, REINFORCING THE DRY
AIR. THE DECREASE IN RAINFALL WILL REDUCE FLOODING RISKS HOWEVER,
THE SOPCHOPPY AND ST. MARKS ARE IN ACTION STAGE, BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO ENTER INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE. BOTH RIVERS SHOULD REACH
THEIR CREST IN A DAY OR TWO BEFORE RECEDING. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN
TO RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND FOR THE COASTAL
REGIONS, AND GRADUALLY INCREASING CHANCES INLAND.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 92 68 90 68 / 20 0 10 0
PANAMA CITY 92 71 91 70 / 20 0 10 0
DOTHAN 92 65 88 66 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 92 64 89 66 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 92 67 90 67 / 20 0 10 0
CROSS CITY 91 72 92 69 / 50 30 40 10
APALACHICOLA 90 72 89 72 / 30 10 20 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...YOUNG
SHORT TERM...MONTGOMERY
LONG TERM....MONTGOMERY
AVIATION...YOUNG
MARINE...MONTGOMERY
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
HYDROLOGY...MONTGOMERY
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