450
FXUS62 KTAE 261746
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
146 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1041 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA (AS
EVIDENCED BY THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE
CWA). WON'T SEE A HUGE IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY, GIVEN
THAT IT'S AUGUST, BUT WILL SEE VIRTUALLY NIL POPS. ONLY CHANGE
MADE TO FORECAST WAS TO REMOVE THE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE FROM
THE COASTAL WATERS, AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED FROM THE INITIAL
POST-FRONTAL SURGE.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2025
THE "COLD" FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION BY SUNRISE, BUT IF
YOU WERE EXPECTING A COOLER AIRMASS YOU'LL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT AT
LEAST A FEW MORE DAYS. WHILE THE AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND THIS FRONT
WON'T REALLY BE COOLER, IT WILL BE MUCH DRIER. PRECIPTABLE WATERS
(PWATS) WILL DROP TO AROUND 1 TO 1.25 INCHES AND AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
WILL EASILY DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S AND WE TAP INTO THE
DRIER AIR ALOFT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. WHILE FORECAST HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND THE LOW 90S ACROSS FLORIDA AND IN THE UPPER 80S
ACROSS ALABAMA/GEORGIA, THE ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT HUMIDITY
SHOULD MAKE IT A FAIRLY COMFORTABLE DAY FOR DEEP-SOUTH STANDARDS.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST,
IT'S POSSIBLE ANOTHER WEAK FRONT ATTEMPTS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. EVEN IF THIS FRONT DOESN'T MAKE IT IN TONIGHT,
THE DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD MAKE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FAIRLY COMFORTABLE.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2025
WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DRY, PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE EASTERN US. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEAR ZERO THANKS TO
THE DRY AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES VERY CLOSE TO OR EVEN BELOW ACTUAL
AIR TEMPERATURES THANKS TO DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE ATLANTIC AND THE NEXT SYSTEM TAKES
SHAPE TO OUR WEST. THIS STARTS NUDGING OUR FRONT THAT'S BRINGING THE
NICER WEATHER BACK NORTH. PWATS WILL RISE TO 1.4 TO 1.6 INCHES.
STILL, WITH THE AIR ON THE DRIER SIDE, RAIN CHANCES WILL ONLY BE
AROUND 20-30% IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY CONFINED TO THE BIG BEND.
HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 90 WITH LOWS AROUND 70.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2025
THE FRONT STALLS OVER OUR AREA OR JUST OFFSHORE AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. THIS SHORTWAVE AMID NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BACK TO OUR FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AS THESE IMPULSES KEEP MOVING THROUGH, WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY FORM ALONG THE FRONT, HELPING BOOST RAIN CHANCES AS
THEY PASS NEARBY. PWATS RETURN TO AROUND 1.8 TO 2 INCHES, SO THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THIS INCREASED RAIN
COVERAGE, CLOUD COVER, AND EAST TO NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RATHER COOL BY LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER
STANDARDS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. LOWS WILL REMAIN
AROUND 70.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2025
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE THROUGH THIS
MORNING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY BREEZES
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THIS MORNING OVER THE WATERS WEST OF
APALACHICOLA. ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH BREEZES IS POSSIBLE AGAIN
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. SEAS WILL BE
AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET. WINDS WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY AND BECOME LIGHT
TO GENTLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO RETREAT
NORTHWARD. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE MID TO LATE WEEK OVER THE
WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2025
A "COLD" FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LAST NIGHT BUT THE
ONLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL BE THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AS
DEWPOINTS FALL. GOOD MIXING AND THE DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW RHS
TO FALL TO AROUND 35 TO 45% THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH. THE WINDS LIGHTEN UP FURTHER ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT THE DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
ALONG WITH GOOD DISPERSIONS EACH DAY. FIRE CONCERNS SHOULD REMAIN
LOW GIVEN WETTER CONDITIONS AS OF LATE BUT NO RAIN IS FORECAST UNTIL
LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2025
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ONLY RIVER
IN ACTION STAGE IS THE SOPCHOPPY RIVER, WHICH IS CRESTING NOW AND
SHOULD FALL BELOW ACTION STAGE WEDNESDAY. RAIN RETURNS LATER THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT RAINFALL TOTALS ARE MOST LIKELY GOING TO
BE IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES WOULD BE POSSIBLE. AT THIS POINT, IT APPEARS
THE FLASH FLOOD AND RIVER FLOOD THREAT WOULD BE LOW.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 90 69 90 70 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 92 70 90 68 / 0 0 10 0
DOTHAN 88 67 87 65 / 10 0 0 0
ALBANY 88 66 87 67 / 10 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 90 67 89 70 / 10 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 94 69 93 72 / 0 10 20 10
APALACHICOLA 89 72 88 71 / 0 0 10 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...DOBBS
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...DOBBS
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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