917
FXUS62 KTAE 261822
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
222 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2025
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2025
EXPECT EARLY-AUTUMN CONDITIONS AS AN UNSEASONABLY COOL & DRY
POST- FRONTAL AIRMASS CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA.
WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 60S ARE FORECAST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN FROM THE MIDWEST FOSTERS
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S. FACTORING IN 50S & 60S DEW POINTS YIELDS COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITIES FOR LATE AUGUST. TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS NICE REPRIEVE
BY SPENDING SOME TIME OUTDOORS, IF YOU CAN!
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT TUE
AUG 26 2025
THE TRI-STATE AREA BEGINS GRADUALLY MOISTENING BACK UP AS WE GET
LATER INTO THE WEEK WHEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST.
HOWEVER, RAIN CHANCES ARE MINIMAL DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SEABREEZE CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
OUTFLOW-BOUNDARY-DRIVEN ACTIVITY OVER THE WIREGRASS THURSDAY
NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO THE MID-UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
WHILE HIGHS FEEL A TOUCH WARMER/MUGGIER THAN WEDNESDAY WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY VIA WIDESPREAD 60S DEW POINTS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2025
LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN US WITH A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE RIPPLES ROUNDING ITS BASE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
WET/UNSETTLED WEATHER LABOR DAY WEEKEND. IN ADDITION, WE GET INTO
NW FLOW ON FRIDAY, SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) OR ITS ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SAGGING
INTO THE MS VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCES (ABOUT 40-50%) OF RAIN SUBSEQUENTLY RETURN TO THE FORECAST
BY THEN. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR BEING AFFECTED BY THIS MCS IS
CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE FL STATE LINE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT ESPECIALLY
HIGH GIVEN SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON TRACK.
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION INCREASES FURTHER SATURDAY-SUNDAY TO
THE LIKELY RANGE (UP TO AROUND 70-75%) AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIPS SOUTHWARD, STAGNATES ACROSS THE REGION, AND PROVIDES A FOCUS
FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS. PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED NUISANCE AND/OR FLASH FLOODING ARE
GOING TO BE THE MAIN CONCERNS. DEVELOPING AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE FRONT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, WHICH WOULD FURTHER ENHANCE
CONVECTION. THE GFS & ECMWF BOTH SHOWCASE SUCH A SOLUTION, BUT
DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTIONARY DETAILS. STAY TUNED!
THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER & RAIN-COOLED AIR YIELDS FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGE FROM UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2025
AFTERNOON OBSERVATIONS:
PANAMA CITY TIDE STATION (8729108) - SUSTAINED ENE WINDS NEAR 9
KTS.
PANAMA CITY BEACH TIDE STATION (8729210) - SUSTAINED ENE WINDS 9
KTS.
WEST TAMPA BUOY (42036) - SUSTAINED SOUTH WIND NEAR 8 KTS, 2-FT
SEAS, AND A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 4 SECONDS.
CWF SYNOPSIS: FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS PREVAIL MUCH OF THIS
WEEK THANKS TO POST-FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
PROVIDING LIGHT TO GENTLE OFFSHORE BREEZES. MORE UNSETTLED AND
STORMY WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST LABOR DAY WEEKEND WHEN A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE REGION.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2025
A DRY AIRMASS PERSISTS THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE USHERING NORTHERLY WINDS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY BOTTOMS OUT
IN THE 30S AND 40S TOMORROW, THEN REBOUNDS EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY.
GOOD TO FAIR DISPERSIONS ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY BEFORE
TANKING ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE LATTER SEES RAIN CHANCES RETURN
TO THE FORECAST. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY LABOR DAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE REGION.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2025
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH MID-WEEK BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN
THURSDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND. PROLONGED PERIODS OF WET
WEATHER FROM A STAGNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE LIKELY SATURDAY-
SUNDAY. THE WPC DAY 4 & 5 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOKS PLACE THE
TRI-STATE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4). ISOLATED
NUISANCE AND/OR FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
SIGNIFICANT RIVERINE FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THE
SITE SPECIFIC SOPCHOPPY RIVER HAS CRESTED AND IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE FALLING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 69 90 70 90 / 0 0 0 20
PANAMA CITY 70 90 68 90 / 0 10 0 10
DOTHAN 67 87 65 89 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 66 87 67 89 / 0 0 0 10
VALDOSTA 67 89 70 90 / 0 0 0 20
CROSS CITY 69 93 72 92 / 10 20 10 40
APALACHICOLA 72 88 71 88 / 0 10 0 20
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...IG3
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...IG3
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