870
FXUS62 KTAE 270031
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
831 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 830 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2025
AN UNCOMMONLY DRY AIR MASS FOR AUGUST IS OVER THE REGION RIGHT
NOW, WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THE ONLY
MINOR TWEAK TO THE FORECAST WAS TO LOWER TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR
TWO LATE TONIGHT, CLOSER TO BUT NOT QUITE AS COOL AS MOS GUIDANCE.
THIN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SKIRT ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF THE FL
STATE LINE BEFORE SUNRISE, WHICH SLOW THE FALL OF TEMPERATURES.
NONETHELESS, SUNRISE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL BE THE SECOND
MORNING OF COOLER, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AFTER A COUPLE OF HOT
STEAMY MONTHS.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2025
EXPECT EARLY-AUTUMN CONDITIONS AS AN UNSEASONABLY COOL & DRY
POST- FRONTAL AIRMASS CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA.
WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 60S ARE FORECAST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN FROM THE MIDWEST FOSTERS
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S. FACTORING IN 50S & 60S DEW POINTS YIELDS COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITIES FOR LATE AUGUST. TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS NICE REPRIEVE
BY SPENDING SOME TIME OUTDOORS, IF YOU CAN!
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2025
THE TRI-STATE AREA BEGINS GRADUALLY MOISTENING BACK UP AS WE GET
LATER INTO THE WEEK WHEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST.
HOWEVER, RAIN CHANCES ARE MINIMAL DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SEABREEZE CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
OUTFLOW-BOUNDARY-DRIVEN ACTIVITY OVER THE WIREGRASS THURSDAY
NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO THE MID-UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
WHILE HIGHS FEEL A TOUCH WARMER/MUGGIER THAN WEDNESDAY WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY VIA WIDESPREAD 60S DEW POINTS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2025
LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN US WITH A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE RIPPLES ROUNDING ITS BASE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
WET/UNSETTLED WEATHER LABOR DAY WEEKEND. IN ADDITION, WE GET INTO
NW FLOW ON FRIDAY, SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) OR ITS ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SAGGING
INTO THE MS VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCES (ABOUT 40-50%) OF RAIN SUBSEQUENTLY RETURN TO THE FORECAST
BY THEN. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR BEING AFFECTED BY THIS MCS IS
CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE FL STATE LINE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT ESPECIALLY
HIGH GIVEN SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON TRACK.
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION INCREASES FURTHER SATURDAY-SUNDAY TO
THE LIKELY RANGE (UP TO AROUND 70-75%) AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIPS SOUTHWARD, STAGNATES ACROSS THE REGION, AND PROVIDES A FOCUS
FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS. PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED NUISANCE AND/OR FLASH FLOODING ARE
GOING TO BE THE MAIN CONCERNS. DEVELOPING AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE FRONT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, WHICH WOULD FURTHER ENHANCE
CONVECTION. THE GFS & ECMWF BOTH SHOWCASE SUCH A SOLUTION, BUT
DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTIONARY DETAILS. STAY TUNED!
THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER & RAIN-COOLED AIR YIELDS FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGE FROM UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 830 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THANKS TO A
DRIER THAN NORMAL LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS. THE DRY AIR MASS WILL
PREVENT THE FORMATION OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE. OTHERWISE,
CLOUDS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MID-HIGH LEVEL VARIETY ABOVE ABOVE
10,000 FEET. ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TAKE ON
AN INCREASING EASTERLY COMPONENT. THE INITIAL RETURN OF ATLANTIC
MOISTURE WILL BRING STRATOCUMULUS AND/OR FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS TO
VLD LATE IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 830 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM MISSOURI THIS EVENING TO THE COAST OF
NORTH CAROLINA LATE THURSDAY, CAUSING OUR WINDS TO CLOCK AROUND
FROM NORTHERLY TONIGHT, TO NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
THEN EASTERLY ON FRIDAY. EXPECT NIGHTTIME AND MORNING SURGES OF
OFFSHORE WIND IN THIS PATTERN. A TURN TO GENTLE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHERLY BREEZES IS FORECAST THIS WEEKEND, AS A STATIONARY FRONT
SHARPENS OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE ON SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2025
A DRY AIRMASS PERSISTS THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE USHERING NORTHERLY WINDS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY BOTTOMS OUT
IN THE 30S AND 40S TOMORROW, THEN REBOUNDS EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY.
GOOD TO FAIR DISPERSIONS ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY BEFORE
TANKING ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE LATTER SEES RAIN CHANCES RETURN
TO THE FORECAST. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY LABOR DAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE REGION.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2025
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH MID-WEEK BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN
THURSDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND. PROLONGED PERIODS OF WET
WEATHER FROM A STAGNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE LIKELY SATURDAY-
SUNDAY. THE WPC DAY 4 & 5 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOKS PLACE THE
TRI-STATE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4). ISOLATED
NUISANCE AND/OR FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
SIGNIFICANT RIVERINE FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THE
SITE SPECIFIC SOPCHOPPY RIVER HAS CRESTED AND IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE FALLING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 69 90 70 90 / 0 0 0 20
PANAMA CITY 70 90 68 90 / 0 10 0 10
DOTHAN 65 87 65 89 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 66 87 67 89 / 0 0 0 10
VALDOSTA 66 89 70 90 / 0 0 0 20
CROSS CITY 68 93 72 92 / 10 20 10 40
APALACHICOLA 71 88 71 88 / 0 10 0 20
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...IG3
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...HANER
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...IG3
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page