148
FXUS62 KTAE 270528
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
128 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2025
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2025
ANOTHER "COLD" FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS
ANOTHER WAVE IN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD. THIS
WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF NORTHERLY FLOW, BUT SIMILAR TO THE
LAST FEW "COLD" FRONTS, ONLY DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT.
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE ONLY
CHANCE AT RAIN BEING PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
BIG BEND WHERE BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS ALABAMA AND GEORGIA AND IN THE LOW
90S ACROSS OUR FLORIDA COUNTIES.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2025
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY, BRINGING
A RETURN TO EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST, BUT OUR CENTRAL TIME ZONE COUNTIES WILL
LIKELY STILL EXPERIENCE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S, BUT
70+ DEW POINTS WILL RETURN TO THE EASTERNMOST AREAS. WITH THE
EASTERLY FLOW, A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE CROSSES THE SUWANNEE RIVER LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 90, AND THE ADDED MOISTURE WILL RESULT
IN LOWS CREEPING UP TO NEAR 70 AREA WIDE.
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL START SENDING THE COLD FRONT BACK NORTHWARD. MOISTURE INCREASES
FURTHER FRIDAY AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.8 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES IN, BUT IT APPEARS THE MORE
CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE WELL TO OUR WEST.
WITH THE FRONT RETURNING CLOSE TO OUR AREA, WE'LL HAVE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE DAY. THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
OUR HIGHS DOWN IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH UPPER 80S
NEAR THE COAST.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2025
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR OR OVER OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND
WITH OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVES HELPING SPUR FRONTAL WAVES, AND ENHANCING
OUR RAIN CHANCES. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST DAY OF THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS PWATS REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES. ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LIKELY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THEN SLOWLY
TAPERING ON MONDAY. WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES,
IT APPEARS THE OVERALL THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING SHOULD BE LOW. THE
PARENT TROUGH BEGINS TO NUDGE EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH SHOULD
SEND OUR FRONT SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM US, ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO FILTER
BACK IN. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE HELD DOWN THANKS TO THE
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. HIGHS WILL
RISE BACK TO NEAR 90 EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE SUNSHINE. LOWS WILL
STAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2025
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES THIS MORNING WILL SUBSIDE WITH LIGHT
TO GENTLE BREEZES THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A STATIONARY FRONT LIFTS BACK
TO THE NORTH OVER OUR WATERS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY EAST TO NORTHEAST NORTH OF THE FRONT AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST
SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE
MARINE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BE
AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET THIS MORNING, DECREASING TO 1 TO 2 FEET THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2025
A DRY AIRMASS PERSISTS THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
USHERING NORTHERLY WINDS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY BOTTOMS OUT IN THE 30S
AND 40S TODAY, THEN REBOUNDS EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
GOOD TO FAIR DISPERSIONS ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY BEFORE
TANKING ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS MOVE IN. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY OVER THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE REGION. DESPITE THE
DRIER CONDITIONS, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LOW
TODAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2025
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THE ONLY
RIVER IN ACTION STAGE IS THE SOPCHOPPY RIVER, WHICH IS CRESTING NOW
AND SHOULD FALL BELOW ACTION STAGE THURSDAY. RAIN RETURNS LATER THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT RAINFALL TOTALS ARE MOST LIKELY GOING TO
BE IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES WOULD BE POSSIBLE. AT THIS POINT, IT APPEARS
THE FLASH FLOOD AND RIVER FLOOD THREAT WOULD BE LOW WITH THESE
FORECAST TOTALS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 90 69 91 71 / 10 0 20 0
PANAMA CITY 90 70 91 72 / 10 0 10 0
DOTHAN 87 64 89 68 / 0 0 0 10
ALBANY 87 66 90 70 / 0 0 10 10
VALDOSTA 89 69 91 71 / 10 0 20 10
CROSS CITY 93 72 91 72 / 20 10 50 10
APALACHICOLA 88 72 88 74 / 10 0 20 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...DOBBS
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...DOBBS
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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