661
FXUS62 KTAE 111030
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
630 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 213 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY WITH NORTHEAST FLOW
CONTINUING TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS, HELPING TEMPERATURES STAY FAIRLY MILD AND PLEASANT
DESPITE THE DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ARE FORECAST IN THE MID 80S TO
LOW 90S WITH HEAT INDICES FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT TO FALL INTO THE 60S.
SHORT TERM & LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
THE PATTERN OF TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE
WEEKEND AND WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
THEREFORE EXPECTED TO ALSO PERSIST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
MINIMAL TO NO RAIN EXPECTED AND HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S.
LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE GENERALLY FORECAST IN THE 60S,
ALTHOUGH A BIT OF MOISTURE RETURN TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE
PERIOD COULD CAUSE LOWS TO CREEP UP INTO THE LOW 70S AGAIN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
PREVAILING VFR CONDS THRU THE PERIOD WITH NE WINDS GENERALLY BELOW
10 KTS AND STREAKS OF UPPER CIRRUS CLOUDS. WINDS GO LGT/VRB AFTER
SUNSET WHILE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR UP.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 213 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THIS PERIOD AS A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY FINALLY MOVES OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST BY THE
WEEKEND. PRIMARILY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
RIDGING WILL PROMOTE OVERNIGHT EASTERLY WIND SURGES INTO THE GULF
WITH PERIODS OF CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. MINIMAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 213 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO WITH
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. HIGH DISPERSIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND DUE TO HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS AND
SLIGHTLY BREEZY TRANSPORT WINDS AT TIMES. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS FORECAST IN THE LOW 30-40% RANGE EACH DAY, BUT A FEW
SPOTS OF UPPER 20% RH COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. PROLONGED WARM AND
DRY WEATHER COULD LEAD TO INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE
COMING WEEK OR LONGER.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 213 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 89 66 90 66 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 90 69 91 69 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 89 64 90 64 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 89 64 90 63 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 87 64 89 65 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 89 67 91 67 / 0 0 10 0
APALACHICOLA 86 71 87 71 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...MERRIFIELD
SHORT TERM...MERRIFIELD
LONG TERM....MERRIFIELD
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...MERRIFIELD
FIRE WEATHER...MERRIFIELD
HYDROLOGY...MERRIFIELD
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