808
FXUS62 KTAE 112309
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
709 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
A HIGH PRESSURE BLOCKING PATTERN PERSISTS, CAUSING WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THE NEAR TERM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE,
CENTERED TO OUR NORTHEAST, CONTRIBUTES TO THESE CONDITIONS AS WELL,
WITH ZERO POPS TONIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW. HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH
INTO THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS FALL INTO THE MID 60S. NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW CONTINUES TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA, WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT
DURING THE DAY AND CALM OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
BLOCKING PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH STOUT RIDGING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AND TROUGHING DOWN
THE EAST COAST. SURFACE RIDGING DOWN THE APPALACHIANS WILL KEEP
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THERE MAY BE
A BACKDOOR FRONT THAT REACHES THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
FRESH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHICH MAY BRING
A MINOR WIND SHIFT AND/OR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES.
OTHER THAN THAT FEATURE, FAIRLY DRY AND PERSISTENT FORECAST
CONTINUING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT ARE GENERALLY FORECAST IN THE 60S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 707 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THIS PERIOD AS A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY FINALLY MOVES OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST BY THE
WEEKEND. PRIMARILY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
RIDGING WILL PROMOTE OVERNIGHT EASTERLY WIND SURGES INTO THE GULF
WITH PERIODS OF CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. MINIMAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
THE NEXT WEEK OR SO WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. HIGH
DISPERSIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND DUE TO HIGH
MIXING HEIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY BREEZY TRANSPORT WINDS AT TIMES. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST IN THE LOW 30-40% RANGE EACH DAY, BUT
A FEW SPOTS OF UPPER 20% RH COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. PROLONGED WARM
AND DRY WEATHER COULD LEAD TO INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN
THE COMING WEEK OR LONGER.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
LITTLE, IF ANY, RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS,
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 66 92 66 90 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 69 91 69 91 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 64 91 64 89 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 63 90 63 88 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 64 90 65 89 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 66 91 68 89 / 0 0 0 20
APALACHICOLA 70 88 71 88 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING
FOR FLZ108-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...SCHOLL
SHORT TERM...SCHOLL
LONG TERM....SCHOLL
AVIATION...MONTGOMERY
MARINE...SCHOLL
FIRE WEATHER...SCHOLL
HYDROLOGY...SCHOLL
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