521
FXUS62 KTAE 121634
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1234 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 947 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
PERSISTENCE WILL BE A GOOD FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR BALLOON DATA SHOW A LONGWAVE
500 MB TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING DOWN THE APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE
THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. A SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
GEORGIA WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL
DEEPEN THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE BAHAMAS
ENOUGH TO STRENGTHEN THE DRY N-NE LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR REGION.
THIS WILL CONTINUALLY REINFORCE THE DRY CONTINENTAL AIR MASS OVER
THE REGION. THE DRY AIR MASS AND FULL SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT
ANOTHER AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S, AND A PLEASANTLY
COOL NIGHT TONIGHT IN THE 60S.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
DAY-TO-DAY CHANGES IN SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE SMALL AND GRADUAL. NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. LOW-LEVEL NE FLOW
AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL AMOUNT TO COOLER-THAN-NORMAL NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES, HOTTER-THAN-NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES, AND NO RAIN
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. SOME INCREASE IN
MOISTURE IS LIKELY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK, ENOUGH FOR
LOW RAIN CHANCES OVER OUR FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTH GEORGIA COUNTIES
STARTING AROUND NEXT THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD, A 500 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL PERSIST FROM THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS DOWN TO NE FLORIDA. THIS TROUGH WILL REACH PEAK
AMPLITUDE OVER THE WEEKEND, AND OUR UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWEST
TOO. N-NE SURFACE FLOW WILL BE STRONGEST ON SATURDAY, CONTINUALLY
REINFORCING THE DRY CONTINENTAL AIR MASS. PLEASANTLY COOL MORNINGS
IN THE 60S AND SEASONABLY HOT AFTERNOONS IN THE UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S
WILL PREVAIL. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WILL NOT
BE MUGGY ENOUGH TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE HEAT INDEX.
SLOWLY OVER THE COURSE OF NEXT WORK WEEK, THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL
DEAMPLIFY AND BECOME MORE DETACHED FROM THE MAIN MID-LATITUDE JET
STREAM. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RISE MODESTLY, AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
TAKE ON A MORE MARITIME-INFLUENCED EASTERLY COMPONENT. DEWPOINTS
WILL CREEP UP THROUGH THE 60S, AND SO NIGHTTIME AND MORNING TEMPS
WILL SLOWLY TREND UPWARD. IT WILL TAKE UNTIL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
OF NEXT WEEK FOR GEFS 75TH PERCENTILE PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES
TO CREEP UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES OVER OUR FL AND FAR SOUTH GA COUNTIES.
SO LOW POPS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST IN THOSE COUNTIES AS SOON
AS THURSDAY. THE MAIN QUESTION WITH MOISTURE IS SEEING HOW FAR
NORTH THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS OVER SOUTH FL CAN EXPAND LATER NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHEAST
WINDS CONTINUING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1218 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A PERSISTENT TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE BAHAMAS. NORTHEAST FLOW IS
FAVORABLE FOR NIGHTTIME AND MORNING SURGES OF WIND OFF THE LAND, AND
RELATIVE LULLS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL PEAK AS FRESH
BREEZES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1218 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
MANY DISTRICTS HAVE GOTTEN THROUGH THE FIRST 11 DAYS OF SEPTEMBER
WITH NO RAIN, AND NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.
FROM TODAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, A PERSISTENT PATTERN OF GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS AND FULL SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT HIGH AFTERNOON
DISPERSION. THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRY, WITH MIN RH VALUES WELL BELOW
40 PERCENT FOR ALL BUT SOUTHEAST BIG BEND DISTRICTS. THE STRONGEST
WINDS AND LOWEST RH WILL COME ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL TAKE
UNTIL ABOUT WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK TO EVEN GET A LOW
CHANCE OF RAIN OVER OUR FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTH GEORGIA DISTRICTS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1218 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 90 66 89 64 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 91 70 90 67 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 90 64 88 62 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 89 64 88 61 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 89 64 88 62 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 90 67 89 65 / 10 0 20 0
APALACHICOLA 88 71 87 69 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HANER
SHORT TERM...HANER
LONG TERM....HANER
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...HANER
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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