142
FXUS62 KTAE 131734
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
134 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH DRY NORTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA AND A
SURFACE TROUGH NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS WILL MAINTAIN THIS FLOW.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SUNDAY
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
PERSISTENCE LOOKS TO BE THE RULE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PATTERN OF DRY NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THIS
WILL AMOUNT TO A CONTINUATION OF COOL NIGHTS AND SEASONABLY WARM
AFTERNOONS WITH A DRY AIR MASS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK, THE PATTERN WILL
SHIFT SLIGHTLY, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE PERSISTENT DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED LOCALLY. AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE
EAST COAST WILL KEEP DEEP MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH MAINLY DRY
WEATHER CONTINUING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (20% OR LESS) OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BY THE TIME WE GET TO THE END
OF THE WEEK, BUT THIS CURRENTLY LOOKS INSIGNIFICANT WITH LITTLE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. WITH ANOTHER WEEK OF DRY WEATHER COMING UP,
DROUGHT CONCERNS WILL START TO INCREASE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHEAST WINDS
CONTINUING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
MAINLY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A PERSISTENT TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. NORTHEAST FLOW IS FAVORABLE FOR
NIGHTTIME AND MORNING SURGES OF WIND OFF THE LAND, AND RELATIVE
LULLS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE SURGES AT NIGHT COULD BRING BRIEF
CAUTIONARY LEVEL CONDITIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WHILE CRITICAL
RHS ARE NOT FORECAST, MINRHS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 35% FOR MOST
AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS. FORTUNATELY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW
CRITICAL LEVELS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
NO FLOODING OR RIVER CONCERNS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH
DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. DROUGHT CONCERNS WILL START INCREASE NEXT
WEEK IF THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TO PERSIST BEYOND THE PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 63 88 64 89 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 67 90 68 91 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 62 89 62 90 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 61 88 61 89 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 61 87 61 89 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 64 90 63 90 / 0 10 0 10
APALACHICOLA 68 85 71 86 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD
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