485
FXUS62 KTAE 141651
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1251 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 949 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
VERY DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A GOES TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER (TPW) VALUE OF ~0.69" AT 12Z. THIS IS NOTABLE, AS THE AVERAGE
VALUE PER SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY IS 1.65" AND THE DAILY MINIMUM
IS 0.58". THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CUTOFF NEAR THE
JACKSONVILLE COAST AND INDUCE WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE
FROM SE GA/NE FL TODAY. THIS EVOLUTION SUPPORTS A CONTINUED DRY
LOCAL FORECAST REINFORCED BY NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN
ADDITION TO SUBSIDENCE ON THE DEVELOPING LOW'S WESTERN FLANK. A
SLIGHT ZONAL GRADIENT IN UPPER HEIGHTS SUPPORTS RELATIVELY "COOLER"
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ALONG/EAST OF THE FLINT RIVER VALLEY (UPPER
80S) AND CLOSER TO 90 DEGREES FOR LOCATIONS WESTWARD UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS DIP INTO THE LOW 60S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN DECOUPLE, THEN ISOLATED
UPPER 50S ARE POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY GAINS LATITUDE DURING
THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD WITH A WEAK REX-LIKE BLOCK DEVELOPING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES DOWN TO THE CAROLINAS. SUCH A PATTERN ONCE AGAIN
SUPPORTS A DRY LOCAL FORECAST AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW 90S AREAWIDE WHILE LOWS
DROP TO THE LOW-TO-MID 60S. PREVAILING NW WINDS KEEPS THE SEABREEZE
PINNED TO THE COAST.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
AS THE REX BLOCK BREAKS MID-TO-LATE WEEK, MODEST UPPER HEIGHT RISES
FROM A BUILDING RIDGE SUPPORTS A CONTINUED WARMING TREND. A MORE
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS ALSO FAVORS A GRADUALLY
MOISTENING AIRMASS WITH SLUGS OF DEEPER MOISTURE CREEPING
NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE FL PENINSULA. LOW RAIN CHANCES (LESS THAN
30%) THEREFORE RETURN TO THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND FOR THE SEABREEZE
ZONE DOWN TO THE EAST FL BIG BEND & SOUTH-CENTRAL GA. LOCATIONS IN
THE SUWANNEE VALLEY HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THAT TIME.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW 90S WITH ISOLATED
MID 90S. PEAK HEAT INDICES REACH THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES
LATE IN THE PERIOD THANKS TO INCREASED MOISTURE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
FEEL MORE SUMMER-LIKE AND MUGGY ONCE AGAIN AS READINGS REACH THE MID-
TO-UPPER 60S (LOW 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST).
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DIURNAL HIGH-BASED CUMULUS
AND OCCASIONAL CIRRUS. NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS TODAY WILL
RELAX TONIGHT AND INCREASE AGAIN TO NEAR 10 KNOTS ON MONDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS PREVAIL THANKS TO
PERSISTENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE APPALACHIANS REGION.
CONTINUED EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
OUTSIDE OF A DAILY ONSHORE PUSH FROM THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE NEARSHORE WATERS. EXPECT NOCTURNAL LAND BREEZE
SURGES ACROSS APALACHEE BAY, WHICH MAY INTRODUCE CAUTIONARY TO
NEAR CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS. FORECAST RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CREEPING INTO THE OFFSHORE LEGS MID
TO LATE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
PREVAILING NE WINDS. THE LATTER SHOULD KEEP THE SEABREEZE PINNED TO
THE COAST. HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS FOSTERS WIDESPREAD HIGH DISPERSIONS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR MOST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA. DESPITE MIN RH
VALUES REMAINING ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, PROLONGED RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS AND WARM TO OCCASIONALLY BREEZY AFTERNOONS INTRODUCES
SOME ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS LATER THIS WEEK AS FUELS WILL CONTINUE
DRYING OUT.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
BEST POTENTIAL IS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE AREA
THIS WEEKEND, BUT AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE NEGLIGIBLE. ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS, THIS CURRENT PROLONGED STRETCH OF
DRY WEATHER INTRODUCES DROUGHT CONCERNS IN THE NEAR FUTURE WITH
RAPID ONSET DROUGHT BEING A POSSIBILITY ACROSS SE AL AND PORTIONS OF
SW GA IN LATE SEPTEMBER.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 89 63 90 65 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 88 67 91 68 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 90 62 89 62 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 88 61 89 62 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 87 60 89 62 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 89 61 90 65 / 10 0 10 0
APALACHICOLA 84 70 86 70 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...IG3
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...DVD
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