491
FXUS62 KTAE 142310
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
710 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM THROUGH LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
A DRY PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A CONTINENTAL TROPICAL (CT) AIR MASS IN
PLACE. COOLER NIGHTS REMAIN FOR TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST. DEW
POINTS FALL INTO THE 50S AGAIN ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS
VIA TURBULENT MIXING. MEANWHILE, PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW FAVORS A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT.
AS THE CUT-OFF LOW EAST OF THE FL COAST LIFTS NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT, EXPECT HIGHS TO MODERATE FROM THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S BY WEDNESDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT A SPOT SHOWER/STORM WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY IF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
POOLS, E.G., THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES, AS WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH
ALOFT BUT OVERALL DRY. A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE
NEXT WEEKEND, BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF THE RIDGE OVER
THE REGION BREAKING DOWN, WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 707 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT/CALM OVERNIGHT. FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
WINDS BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ANCHORED NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL MAINTAIN
EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WHICH WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE
ONSHORE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING CLOSER TO THE COAST AS THE SEA-
BREEZE DEVELOPS. THERE IS A 40% PROBABILITY OF WINDS INCREASING
TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS ON MONDAY NIGHT, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS, AS WELL AS SEAS CLOSER
TO 3 FEET IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS. OTHERWISE, BOATING CONDITIONS
WILL BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHS INCREASING TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S
AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST BY MIDWEEK. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S MONDAY AND LOW TO MID 30S TUESDAY.
THE SEABREEZE MAY ALSO MAKE MORE INLAND PROGRESS BOTH DAYS.
WHILE THE MAIN CONCERN IS HIGH DISPERSION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MAY DEVELOP AT SOME POINT.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
NO MEANINGFUL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK, SO THERE
ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS. WITH THE RECENT DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR RAPID
ONSET DROUGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST AL AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST GA FROM MID TO LATE SEPTEMBER.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 59 89 61 90 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 64 91 65 90 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 59 90 60 90 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 59 89 60 90 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 58 89 61 90 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 60 90 63 91 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 68 85 68 85 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...LF
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