788
FXUS62 KTAE 151026
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
626 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 229 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
ANOTHER DAY OF PERSISTENCE FORECASTING IS COMING UP, MEANING THAT
TODAY WILL BE A LOT LIKE YESTERDAY.
A DRY AIR MASS DOMINATES THE REGION RIGHT NOW. SATELLITE-DERIVED
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) IMAGERY SHOWS PW VALUES RANGING FROM 0.9
INCHES OVER OUR EASTERN TIME ZONE COUNTIES TO ABOUT 1.1 INCHES
OVER THE CENTRAL TIME ZONE. 1000-700 MB LAYER FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BE NORTHEASTERLY TODAY, THANKS TO THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE NC
COAST AND THE COLD FRONT TRAILING BACK ACROSS CENTRAL FL. SO THE
DRIER AIR OVER OUR GEORGIA COUNTIES WILL SPREAD INTO THE LESS DRY
CENTRAL TIME ZONE DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM FALLING WELL DOWN INTO THE 50S,
WITH SIMILARLY HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AS ON SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
NO HAZARDOUS OR HIGH IMPACT WEATHER IS COMING UP THROUGH THE WEEK
AHEAD AND THIS WEEKEND. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE EFFECT THAT
THE CONTINUATION OF THE WEEKS-LONG PERIOD OF RAIN-FREE WEATHER
WILL HAVE ON FIRE DANGER AND THE ONSET OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THE
FIRST TIME THAT EVEN A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST
WILL BE NEXT WEEKEND.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BASICALLY FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF THE
CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN. A 500 MB LOW WILL BE CUT OFF OVER NC WITH
A BLOCKING HIGH TO THE NORTH, AND A TRAILING MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
TRAIL BACK TOWARD THE FL PANHANDLE. THE AIR MASS WILL STILL BE
DRY. THE SURFACE LOW EAST OF THE NC COAST WILL SLOWLY MEANDER
NORTHWARD, SO ITS DISTANT INFLUENCE ON OUR NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
DECREASE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FILLING IN SLOWLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES, AND OUR LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL WEAKEN WHILE
CLOCKING FROM NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. WILL BECOME UNBLOCKED, AS THE STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WEAKENS AND FADES. IN TURN, THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL BECOME UN-BUDGED AND EXIT OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. OUR 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE MODESTLY, AND WE
WILL COME UNDER MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL HAVE
TURNED FROM NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY, WHICH WILL START TO SLOWLY
INCREASE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. THE INCREASE OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS
THROUGH THE 60S WILL NUDGE NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES UPWARD, WHILE
THE RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL ADD A FEW DEGREES TO AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES.
THIS WEEKEND, DEEPER AND RICHER MOISTURE OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE
FL PENINSULA WILL CREEP AND EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD, AS THE FRONTAL
ZONE OVER THE PENINSULA SLOWLY RETREATS POLEWARD. SO AS DEEPER
MOISTURE INCREASES NEXT WEEKEND FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST,
PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY WHEN PW VALUES SHOULD MOISTEN TO NEAR OR
ABOVE 1.5 INCHES, LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO RETURN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. OCCASIONAL WIND
GUSTS AROUND 15KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 229 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL MAINTAIN NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
BREEZES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, THEN A GENERAL
DECREASE TO LIGHT AND GENTLE BREEZES WILL OCCUR AND PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 229 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN-FREE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS WORK WEEK. A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT COOLER
NIGHTS AND SEASONABLY HOT AFTERNOONS. NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS
WILL START TO DECREASE TODAY, BECOMING LIGHT ON TUESDAY. HIGH
DISPERSION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DEEP MIXING UNDER
FULL SUNSHINE, ALONG WITH ONE LAST DAY OF SOMEWHAT ELEVATED
TRANSPORT WINDS.
OVER THE LAST WEEK, CONSISTENTLY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE
NEARLY WIPED OUT THE SEABREEZE. MOVING FORWARD THIS WEEK,
WEAKENING OF THE GENERAL NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL ALLOW THE
SEABREEZE TO RE- EMERGE NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON, WITH
GREATER INLAND PENETRATION STARTING TUESDAY AS THE GENERAL FLOW
WEAKENS FURTHER.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 229 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
NO HYDROLOGICALLY MEANINGFUL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
WEEK, SO NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
EXCEPT IN THE SE BIG BEND REGION, LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL HAS
OCCURRED THIS MONTH. AREAWIDE, THE WEATHER WILL CONFIDENTLY
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK. THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR RAPID ONSET DROUGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST AL AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST GA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SEPTEMBER.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 88 63 90 65 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 90 67 89 68 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 89 62 90 65 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 88 61 90 64 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 87 61 89 64 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 89 62 90 65 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 85 69 85 70 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HANER
SHORT TERM...HANER
LONG TERM....HANER
AVIATION...MONTGOMERY
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...HANER
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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