539
FXUS62 KTAE 160127
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
927 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 926 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS EVENING, UPDATES DO NOT APPEAR
NECESSARY.
NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
PERSISTENT AND ELEVATED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL LIGHTEN INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION. AT
THE SURFACE, A HIGH PRESSURE AXIS THAT EXTENDED DOWN INTO THE
REGION WILL WEAKEN AT THE SAME TIME. AS THE COOLER NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW WEAKENS IT SHOULD ALLOW A SLOW WARMING TREND TO BEGIN THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW
90S BY WEDNESDAY. THE DRY CONDITION WILL CONTINUE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
THE QUIET PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE END OF THE WEEK
AND UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS OF NOTE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (LESS
THAN 15-20% CHANCE) OF RAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK
AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES. HOWEVER, WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT FORCING FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AND A LACK OF DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE COVERAGE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE VERY SPARSE. THE DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXTEND INTO NEXT WEEK. SHOULD THIS
OCCUR, MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE PUSHING 3 WEEKS WITHOUT RAIN.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 717 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT
WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL MAINTAIN NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
BREEZES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, THEN A GENERAL
DECREASE TO LIGHT AND GENTLE BREEZES WILL OCCUR LATER TUESDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE DECREASE IN NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY
BREEZES THIS WEEK WILL ALLOW THE NEARSHORE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE TO
RE-EMERGE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL DECREASE
SLIGHTLY THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH SHOULD BRING DISPERSIONS BACK DOWN
TO AROUND 50-70 INTO WEDNESDAY. WHILE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SLOWLY
CLIMB A DEGREE OR TWO THE NEXT FEW DAYS, TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO WARM SO AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD
REMAIN RELATIVELY CONSTANT EACH DAY AND AROUND 30 TO 40%. FOR
COASTAL LOCATIONS THE LIGHTER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW A
GREATER CHANCE OF THE SEABREEZE PENETRATING INLAND COMPARED TO THE
LAST FEW DAYS. WHILE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVERALL SHOULD REMAIN
LOW, CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOCALIZED
AREAS OF ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK MEANS NO FORECAST
HYDROLOGICAL OR RIVERINE CONCERNS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 64 90 66 91 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 67 89 69 90 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 62 90 64 91 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 62 90 64 93 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 61 90 64 91 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 63 90 66 92 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 69 84 71 86 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...DOBBS
SHORT TERM...DOBBS
LONG TERM....DOBBS
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...DOBBS
HYDROLOGY...DOBBS
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