462
FXUS62 KTAE 160722
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
322 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE
WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
SATELLITE-DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) IMAGERY SHOWS THE HEART
OF A DRY AIR MASS CENTERED SQUARELY ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION,
WITH PW VALUES MOSTLY IN THE 0.7 TO 0.9 INCH RANGE. FURTHER NORTH,
THE AIR MASS FROM MIDDLE TN TO EASTERN GA IS A BIT MOISTER, AND
THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THAT MOISTER AIR COULD SKIRT ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE U.S. 82 CORRIDOR (EUFAULA-TIFTON) THIS AFTERNOON.
CANNOT RULE OUT A WEAK, LOW-TOPPED SHOWER UP THERE TODAY, BUT THE
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN ONLY WARRANTS A GHOST 10-PERCENT RAIN
CHANCE FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE, NE WINDS WILL DECREASE FURTHER COMPARED WITH MONDAY.
AFTERNOON SEABREEZES RETURNED ON MONDAY AT OUR COASTAL OBSERVATION
SITES, AND THE SEABREEZE SHOULD PUSH A BIT FURTHER INLAND TODAY.
OTHERWISE, THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILARLY HOT AS RECENT DAYS.
WITH MORE MOISTURE NIBBLING AWAY AT THE DRY AIR MASS ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE AND FROM THE SEABREEZE ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE, LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD AVOID THE 50S... 60S WILL BE MOST
COMMON WITH BEACHFRONT LOCALES ON THE EMERALD COAST STAYING NEAR
70F.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
THE POSITIVELY TILTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS LINGERED ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST STATES OVER THE LAST WEEK WILL START TO WEAKEN AND
DEAMPLIFY, SO WILL LOSE THE PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL NE FLOW THAT HAS
CHARACTERIZED THIS MONTH SO FAR. INSTEAD, A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS WILL NOSE IN ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA AND SOUTH ALABAMA, WITH
EASTERLY FLOW TO ITS SOUTH ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE GENERAL EASTERLY
FLOW AND AFTERNOON SEABREEZES OFF THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOISTEN THE AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY TREND
UPWARD. MOST NOTABLY, THE ADDED MOISTURE WILL CAUSE LOW
TEMPERATURES TO TREND UPWARD THROUGH THE 60S, WHILE AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S WILL BECOME MORE COMMON.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
ENOUGH MOISTENING WILL FINALLY OCCUR THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK TO BRING IN LOW RAIN CHANCES.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES MOVES
EAST, ITS SOUTHERN EXTENT WILL CARVE OUT A BROAD AND SOMEWHAT
WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS DIGGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THIS WEEKEND. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE, OUR FLOW ALOFT WILL
SHIFT AND BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. MEANWHILE, THE TURN OF OUR LOW-
LEVEL FLOW AROUND TO EASTERLY OR PERHAPS SOUTHEASTERLY WILL
FINALLY BRING A RETURN OF THE MOISTER AIR MASS THAT HAS BEEN
SIDELINED OUT IN THE BAHAMAS AND ACROSS FAR SOUTH FLORIDA. SUNDAY
APPEARS TO BE THE DAY WITH THE GREATEST INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST, WITH MUCH OF THE REGION GETTING MOISTER PW
VALUES BACK UP ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. AS A RULE OF THUMB, 1.5 INCHES
IS A CRUDE THRESHOLD FOR SUPPORTING DEEP, MOIST CONVECTION WHEN
LACKING LARGER SCALE LIFT AND RELYING MAINLY ON LOCAL FORCING SUCH
AS THE SEABREEZE. INDEED, LARGE- SCALE FORCING WILL BE WEAK, AND
DEEP- LAYER SHEAR OF 10-20 KNOTS IN AN AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY
WEAK TO PERHAPS MODERATE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL ONLY SUPPORT
A DISORGANIZED SCATTERING OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. NONETHELESS, AFTER 2-3 WEEKS WITH NO RAIN,
ANY RAIN WILL ONLY BE BENEFICIAL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS LESS THAN
10 KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEAST BREEZES TODAY WILL BECOME MORE
EASTERLY BY THURSDAY AND WEAKEN A LITTLE. NEARSHORE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZES WILL EMERGE EACH AFTERNOON, WITH LATE NIGHT AND MORNING
LAND BREEZES. SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FEET WILL PREVAIL ON THE OPEN GULF
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
LIGHTER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME A BIT MORE EASTERLY ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH LIGHTER GENERAL FLOW, AFTERNOON
SEABREEZES NEAR THE COAST WILL MORE FULLY DEVELOP AND PENETRATE
FURTHER INLAND. ONE MORE AFTERNOON OF HIGH DISPERSION IS EXPECTED
TODAY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR, MAINLY DUE TO DEEP MIXING AND FULL
SUNSHINE. THE DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. SLOW DAY-TO-DAY
MOISTENING WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AS
SEABREEZES MORE FULLY DEVELOP. HOWEVER, WETTING RAINS ARE NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK, EXTENDING THE WEEKS-LONG STRETCH
OF RAIN-FREE WEATHER.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 89 66 90 67 / 0 0 10 0
PANAMA CITY 89 68 90 69 / 0 0 10 0
DOTHAN 89 63 90 66 / 0 0 10 0
ALBANY 90 63 91 67 / 10 0 10 0
VALDOSTA 89 64 90 66 / 10 0 10 0
CROSS CITY 90 63 91 67 / 0 0 10 0
APALACHICOLA 84 69 86 71 / 0 0 10 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HANER
SHORT TERM...HANER
LONG TERM....HANER
AVIATION...MONTGOMERY
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...HANER
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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