218
FXUS62 KTAE 161740
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
140 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW GRADUALLY STARTING TO BECOME A BIT MORE
EASTERLY. WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE
TO NORMAL, ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WILL AGAIN
LEAD TO COOLER THAN NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, A
TINY BIT OF MOISTURE RETURN TO THE AREA, WHILE STILL QUITE DRY,
SHOULD KEEP US AWAY FROM RECORD COOL LOWS.
SHORT TERM & LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
A STATIONARY LOW LEE OF THE APALACHIANS MOUNTAINS ENABLES A
POSITIVELY TILTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT A DRIER
AIR MASS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO OUR REGION DUE TO THE LOW'S
CIRCULATION. THIS LOW WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. ULTIMATELY, THIS WILL TRANSITION THE PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW TO MORE EASTERLY. THIS FLOW WILL SLOWLY BEGIN BRING MOISTURE
BACK TO THE REGION FROM THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE NORTHERN US CAN BRING SOME DEEP TROUGHING
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AS
A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FROM THE
WEEKEND. HEAT INDICES FOR NEXT WEEK ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO CREEP UP
IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED HUMIDITY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST AT ALL
TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KECP WHERE A SEABREEZE IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEAST BREEZES TODAY WILL BECOME MORE
EASTERLY BY THURSDAY AND WEAKEN A LITTLE. NEARSHORE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZES WILL EMERGE EACH AFTERNOON, WITH LATE NIGHT AND MORNING
LAND BREEZES. SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FEET WILL PREVAIL ON THE OPEN GULF
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
LIGHTER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME A BIT MORE EASTERLY ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH LIGHTER GENERAL FLOW, AFTERNOON
SEABREEZES NEAR THE COAST WILL MORE FULLY DEVELOP AND PENETRATE
FURTHER INLAND. ONE MORE AFTERNOON OF HIGH DISPERSION IS EXPECTED
TODAY, MAINLY DUE TO DEEP MIXING AND FULL SUNSHINE. THE DRY AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE TODAY. SLOW DAY-TO-DAY MOISTENING WILL BEGIN ON
WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AS SEABREEZES MORE FULLY
DEVELOP. HOWEVER, WETTING RAINS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WORK
WEEK, EXTENDING THE WEEKS-LONG STRETCH OF RAIN-FREE WEATHER.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 66 91 66 92 / 0 0 0 10
PANAMA CITY 69 90 69 91 / 0 0 0 10
DOTHAN 65 91 66 92 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 64 91 66 93 / 0 10 0 0
VALDOSTA 64 91 66 92 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 65 91 67 92 / 0 0 10 10
APALACHICOLA 70 85 71 86 / 0 0 0 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...MERRIFIELD
SHORT TERM...MERRIFIELD
LONG TERM....MERRIFIELD
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...MERRIFIELD
FIRE WEATHER...MERRIFIELD
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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