082
FXUS62 KTAE 171026
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
626 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE REGION
FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER
PATTERN FOR TODAY. HOWEVER, THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE DAY, ALLOWING OUR SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME MORE
EASTERLY. THE MORE EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PREVENT WIDESPREAD
DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S, WHICH IN TURN WILL ALLOW OUR
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES IN THE
MID-60S AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S. WE MAY BE SEEING THE
BEGINNING OF MOISTURE RETURN, YET IT WILL STILL BE MOSTLY DRY FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT 20% AND LESS.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING OVER THE APALACHIANS DURING THE
SHORT TERM, WHICH WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS. EVEN WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE, RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN MINIMAL FOR THE SHORT TERM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE LOW 90S FOR THE AFTERNOON AND MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN UPPER
60S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
AS WE ENTER THE LONG TERM PERIOD, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. HOWEVER, IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE FOR OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE MORE DOMINANT AT THE
SURFACE, AND INCREASING PWATS TO AROUND 1.5". THIS WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO PERHAPS SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE
LATE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. POPS FOR
SUNDAY AND AFTER RANGE FROM 15-30 PERCENT WITH HIGHER CHANCES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE LOW 90S,
THEN UPPER 80S AS RAIN CHANCES INCREASE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
CONSISTENT IN THE UPPER 60S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 626 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
THE AIR MASS WILL BE LESS DRY TODAY, SO LOOK FOR FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS TO DEVELOP ONCE THERMAL LIFT COMMENCES. A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE IS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN GEORGIA, WITH A
FEW SHOWERS NEAR METRO ATLANTA. AS THIS MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH
GEORGIA TODAY, IT COULD BRING A WEAK SHOWER NEAR ABY THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT WILL WAIT FOR CONFIDENCE TO RISE BEFORE ADDING A
MENTION TO THE TAF.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES OVER THE MARINE ZONES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE EASTERLY FOR MOST OF
THE WATERS, HOWEVER OUR NEARSHORE WATERS WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY
DURING THE AFTERNOONS AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES
ONSHORE. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS FROM THE LAND BREEZE CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR OUR NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE EMERALD COAST DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-2 FEET THROUGH THE
WEEK, LEADING TO GENERALLY TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
FAIR TO MODERATE DISPERSIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
EASTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AROUND 5-10 MPH TODAY, BUT
MAY BECOME VARIABLE IN DIRECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR ALL OF
OUR DISTRICTS, WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE AS WE APPROACH THE
WEEKEND. THE COASTAL REGIONS CAN EXPECT THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
TO MOVE FURTHER INLAND, AS THE WINDS (MENTIONED BEFORE) ARE
GENERALLY LIGHT. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
ANY WETTING RAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
VERY LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO
FLOODING CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 91 68 92 68 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 90 70 91 71 / 0 10 0 0
DOTHAN 91 67 92 67 / 10 10 0 0
ALBANY 92 67 93 67 / 20 10 0 0
VALDOSTA 91 66 92 68 / 10 10 0 0
CROSS CITY 91 66 93 68 / 10 10 10 0
APALACHICOLA 86 71 87 72 / 0 0 10 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...MONTGOMERY
SHORT TERM...MONTGOMERY
LONG TERM....MONTGOMERY
AVIATION...HANER
MARINE...MONTGOMERY
FIRE WEATHER...MONTGOMERY
HYDROLOGY...MONTGOMERY
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