463
FXUS62 KTAE 172330
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
730 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW
WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS OVERHEAD. ENOUGH DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE
SUCH THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AGAIN FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS INLAND AREAS WITH UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AT THE COAST. HIGHS
ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S WITH HEAT
INDICES ROUGHLY THE SAME AS THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM & LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
IN GENERAL, MID LEVEL TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE, FAIRLY LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW WILL VERY GRADUALLY BRING MOISTURE BACK OVER THE
AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC. A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO HANG OUT
OVER THE BAHAMAS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND MAY
CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME A BIT BREEZIER LOCALLY. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH
THE GRADUAL MOISTURE RETURN UNDERWAY, OUR AREA IS STARTING OUT SO
DRY THAT RAIN CHANCES WON'T EVEN BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE AREA
UNTIL SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 727 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LONE EXCEPTION IS VLD WHERE MVFR VSBYS
MAY OCCUR AROUND DAWN MUCH LIKE THE PAST SEVERAL MORNINGS. WINDS
WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING THEN ESTABLISH MOSTLY FROM
THE EAST BY THURSDAY MID MORNING. ECP WINDS BEHIND THE SEABREEZE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST.
SPEEDS WILL MAINLY BE 10 KNOTS OR BELOW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES OVER THE MARINE ZONES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE EASTERLY FOR MOST OF
THE WATERS, HOWEVER OUR NEARSHORE WATERS WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY
DURING THE AFTERNOONS AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES
ONSHORE. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS FROM THE LAND BREEZE CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR OUR NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE EMERALD COAST DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-3 FEET THROUGH
THE WEEK, LEADING TO GENERALLY TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK, ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE
AREA EACH DAY. DESPITE THE SLIGHT MOISTURE RETURN, CONDITIONS WILL
STILL BE QUITE DRY AND WILL LEAD TO FURTHER DRYING OF FUELS. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AND RH ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS,
ALTHOUGH VERY DRY FUELS COULD STILL LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
VERY LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO
FLOODING CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
VERY LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO
FLOODING CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 67 92 69 93 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 69 91 71 92 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 67 92 67 93 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 65 92 68 93 / 20 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 65 92 67 92 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 65 92 68 93 / 0 10 0 10
APALACHICOLA 70 86 72 87 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...MERRIFIELD
SHORT TERM...MERRIFIELD
LONG TERM....MERRIFIELD
AVIATION...SCHOLL
MARINE...MERRIFIELD
FIRE WEATHER...MERRIFIELD
HYDROLOGY...MONTGOMERY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page