273
FXUS62 KTAE 180608
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
208 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2025
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2025
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING WITH A MORE
EASTERLY FLOW FOR THE AFTERNOON THAT WILL BRING IN MOISTURE FROM
THE ATLANTIC; ALLOWING OUR DEW POINTS TO SLOWLY, BUT GRADUALLY,
INCREASE. EVEN SO, DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A LESS THAN
10% CHANCE FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN LOW
TO MID-90S, WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE
SOUTHEAST BIG BEND APPROACHING DAYBREAK.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2025
THE TROUGHING PATTERN EXTENDS INTO THE SHORT AND LONG TERM, WITH
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEKEND. WITH THE
CONTINUING EASTERLY FLOW, THE MOISTURE INCREASE IN THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE PRESENT IN RISING DEW POINTS AND INCREASING PWATS LATE IN
THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID-90S THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MONDAY BEING "COOLER"
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. THIS IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES IN
THE AFTERNOON AND 20-30% POPS. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE PASSING OVER
THE REGION DURING THIS TIME, WITH A POSSIBLE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
NEARBY TO THE NORTHEAST. FOLLOWING MONDAY, TEMPERATURES RETURN TO
THE LOW 90S AND AROUND A 20-30% CHANCE FOR POPS OVER THE CWA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CONSISTENT IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2025
UNTIL THE NIGHTTIME INVERSION BREAKS AFTER SUNRISE, HAVE INCLUDED
VCFG AT ECP, DUE TO A SMOLDERING WILDFIRE WHICH HIGHWAY CAMERAS
SHOW IS PRODUCING REDUCED VISIBILITY BETWEEN 5-10 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF THE AIRFIELD.
HAVE INCLUDED VCSH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AT DHN AND ABY. A
POCKET OF MOISTER AIR EXTENDS FROM EAST-CENTRAL ALABAMA ACROSS
MIDDLE GEORGIA, WHERE THERE WERE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY. AS THIS SAME AIR MASS DRIFTS SOUTH
TODAY, A SIMILAR OUTCOME IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON NEAR DHN
AND ABY.
OTHERWISE, A SLOW MOISTENING OF THE OVERALL AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AT ALL TERMINALS ONCE DAYTIME HEATING
PRODUCES ENOUGH THERMAL LIFT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2025
LIGHT TO GENTLE EASTERLY BREEZES OVER THE WATERS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. SEAS WILL
RANGE FROM 1-3 FEET LEADING TO FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS. AS IS
COMMON REGARDING EASTERLY FLOW, OVERNIGHT SURGES CREATING
CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ALSO INCREASE HEADING INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2025
MODERATE TO ELEVATED DISPERSIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODERATE DISPERSIONS
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE DISTRICTS AS WE HEAD
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 7K FT
THROUGHOUT THE REGION WITH 8K FT IN THE WIREGRASS REGION.
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT AROUND 5-10 MPH AND MAINLY
NORTHEASTERLY/EASTERLY. HOWEVER THE DIRECTIONS WILL BECOME
VARIABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR OUR INLAND DISTRICTS AS
THE SEA BREEZE INTERRUPTS THE FLOW. THE COASTAL DISTRICTS CAN
EXPECT SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOONS WHEN THE SEA BREEZE
KICKS UP. ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS CAN LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS, EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MINRH VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2025
VERY LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO
FLOODING CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 92 69 93 70 / 10 10 0 0
PANAMA CITY 91 71 92 72 / 10 10 0 0
DOTHAN 92 68 93 68 / 10 10 0 0
ALBANY 92 68 93 67 / 10 10 0 0
VALDOSTA 92 67 92 67 / 10 10 10 0
CROSS CITY 92 68 93 69 / 10 10 10 0
APALACHICOLA 87 72 87 74 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...MONTGOMERY
SHORT TERM...MONTGOMERY
LONG TERM....MONTGOMERY
AVIATION...HANER
MARINE...MONTGOMERY
FIRE WEATHER...MONTGOMERY
HYDROLOGY...MONTGOMERY
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