197
FXUS62 KTAE 181816
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
216 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2025
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2025
MORE OF THE SAME WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST IN
THE NEAR TERM: WARM AND DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 60S
WHILE HIGHS REMAIN IN THE 90S. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED TO OUR NORTH, BRINGING PREDOMINANTLY NORTHEASTERLY/
EASTERLY FLOW. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE CWA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A SEABREEZE
ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH WIND SPEEDS
AROUND 10 KTS. POPS ARE NEAR ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA IN THE
NEAR TERM, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS THIS
EVENING IN SOUTH GA AND AL, WHERE PWATS ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2025
A MID-LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN KEEPS THE WARM AND DRY TREND
CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND, WITH EASTERLY FLOW DOMINATING.
THIS FLOW WILL BRING IN MOIST AIR FROM THE ATLANTIC, RESULTING IN
HIGHER PWATS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS CREEPING INTO THE CWA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT, THERE ARE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS TIME FRAME. ON MONDAY, MODELS SHOW A CAD SET
UP TO OUR NORTHEAST, WHICH COULD MANIFEST INTO A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER, THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY THE TIME IT
PUSHES SOUTH INTO OUR AREA AND TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE
SIGNIFICANTLY. HIGHS DROP INTO THE UPPER 80S, AND LOWS REMAIN IN
THE 60S. LATE NEXT WEEK, AROUND THURSDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF
LOW MOVES IN ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, ALTHOUGH THE EXACT
LOCATION IS UNCLEAR. DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS CUT OFF LOW SETS UP,
POPS COULD SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA; A MORE EASTERN
SET UP WILL ADVECT MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN HIGHER
POPS, AS OPPOSED TO A MORE WESTERN SET UP.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 209 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2025
PATCHY FOG MAY IMPACT VLD TOMORROW MORNING PRIOR TO DAYBREAK FOR A
COUPLE HOURS, OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 209 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2025
LIGHT TO GENTLE EASTERLY BREEZES OVER THE WATERS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. SEAS WILL
RANGE FROM 1-3 FEET LEADING TO FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS. AS IS
COMMON REGARDING EASTERLY FLOW, OVERNIGHT SURGES CREATING
CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ALSO INCREASE HEADING INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 209 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2025
FIRE WX CONCERNS REMAIN ELEVATED WITH THE LINGERING DRY AND WARM
PATTERN, ALTHOUGH THE MIN RH REMAINS ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. A
MODERATE DROUGHT IS IN PLACE NORTH OF THE I10 CORRIDOR.
ELSEWHERE, ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST. DROUGHT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN NEXT WEEK. THIS AFTERNOON, MIXING HEIGHTS
ARE AROUND 6K FT ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
PREDOMINANTLY EASTERLY, LEADING TO GOOD DISPERSIONS. ALONG THE
COAST, SEABREEZE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOONS, SO
EXPECT VARIABLE WINDS WITH SPEEDS REMAINING AROUND 10 KTS. ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON, DISPERSIONS INCREASE AND BECOME
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE CWA. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 6K-7K
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. A WILDFIRE WAS REPORTED YESTERDAY IN THE
PANHANDLE; CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR POTENTIAL WILDFIRE
IGNITION ACROSS THE AREA.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2025
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US .
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 70 92 70 92 / 0 10 0 0
PANAMA CITY 72 91 72 92 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 68 93 68 93 / 10 0 0 0
ALBANY 68 93 67 92 / 10 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 68 92 67 91 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 67 93 69 92 / 0 10 0 10
APALACHICOLA 72 87 73 87 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...OLIVER
SHORT TERM...OLIVER
LONG TERM....OLIVER
AVIATION...OLIVER
MARINE...OLIVER
FIRE WEATHER...OLIVER
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
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