036
FXUS62 KTAE 211731
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
131 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
- DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK ONCE AGAIN WITH A DRY
FRONT TONIGHT PUSHING MINIMUM RHS INTO CRITICALLY DRY
TERRITORY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FOLLOW LOCAL OFFICIALS'
ORDERS FOR BURN BANS AND OTHER GUIDANCE.
SHORT TERM & LONG TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
A QUICK WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND IS FORECAST TODAY BEFORE
A REINFORCING BUT UNFORTUNATELY DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS FRONT IS
FORECAST TO PUSH EVEN DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION, CAUSING LOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS INLAND AREAS BOTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW AND ANOTHER
WARMING/MOISTENING TREND IS FORECAST TO RETURN ON FRIDAY AND LAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
MAY APPROACH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY
LOW AT THIS POINT. VERY LOW (~20%) RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE
FORECAST LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT ANY MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATION APPEARS UNLIKELY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A 4000-5000 FOOT DECK OF CLOUDS
MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AS IT PASSES OVER
DHN/ABY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE, MAINLY A WIND SHIFT
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NO RAIN
EXPECTED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FROM THE NORTH DIRECTLY OVER THE
WATERS THIS MORNING. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY MODERATE TO FRESH NORTH AND
NORTHEAST BREEZES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THOSE WINDS WILL
CLOCK AROUND EASTERLY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE
NORTH. EVERY NIGHT, BEGINNING ON TUESDAY NIGHT, CAUTIONARY TO
BORDERLINE ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE NOCTURNAL
WIND SURGES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
FUELS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME A DRYING TREND WITH NO MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. A QUICK PERIOD OF
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A TINY BIT OF MOISTURE RETURN ARE EXPECTED
TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS DRY
REINFORCING FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CRITICALLY DRY AIR MASS ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH MIN RH DROPPING TO NEAR 20-25% FOR MUCH
OF THE INLAND AREAS. WHILE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT, THESE
VERY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DRY FUELS COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER FOR AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, POTENTIALLY LONGER.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2025
LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH SUNDAY. DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WILL THEREFORE PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
TRI-STATE AREA. VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 83 61 81 51 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 80 64 81 54 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 83 55 78 47 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 83 56 78 47 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 83 58 81 48 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 84 59 85 52 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 79 65 80 58 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MERRIFIELD
LONG TERM....MERRIFIELD
AVIATION...SCHOLL
MARINE...MERRIFIELD
FIRE WEATHER...MERRIFIELD
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
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