874
FXUS62 KTAE 212335
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
735 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
- DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH A DRY FRONT
MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT, PUSHING MINIMUM RHS INTO CRITICALLY DRY
TERRITORY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FOLLOW LOCAL OFFICIALS'
ORDERS FOR BURN BANS AND OTHER GUIDANCE.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
WE'LL REMAIN UNDER GENERALLY BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT, THIS FRONTAL
FEATURE WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE, WITH NEARLY NO FORCING FOR
ASCENT, RESULTING IN NEARLY ZERO CHANCES FOR PRECIP. DRY NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS WEEKEND WILL HELP TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE
A BIT ALLOWING DEW POINTS TO RECOVER INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S, AHEAD
OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL FEATURE AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. CURRENT
MODEL GUIDANCE ISN'T PARTICULAR EXCITED ABOUT THIS FRONT BRINGING
THE REGION MUCH, IF ANY, RAINFALL AS THE SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT IS QUICKLY LIFTING AND DEAMPLIFYING TO THE NORTHEAST
BEFORE IT GETS TO OUR REGION. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES, AS THIS CAN
CHANGE OVER THE COMING DAYS.
EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
A DRY REINFORCING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THRU THE TERMINALS TONIGHT,
THUS MAKING FOR A WIND FCST TAF. LIGHT SW WINDS AMIDST CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE A BELT OF 4-5KFT CLOUDS ALONG
THE FRONT MOVE OVERHEAD. AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE NW TO
NEAR STRAIGHT NORTH THEN OCCURS IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER OR NOT FOG BRIEFLY DEVELOPS INVOF
OF TLH/VLD OVERNIGHT. PATTERN RECOGNITION AND THE 18Z HREF & 0Z
LOCAL CAMS SUPPORT THE IDEA, BUT OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE IS MOST KEEN
ON FORMATION IN THE SE BIG BEND AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS IN
QUESTION. INTRODUCED A TEMPO GROUP FROM 6-9Z FOR 6SM BR TO ACCT
FOR THE POSSIBILITY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE ATTM.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT, FOLLOWED
BY MODERATE TO FRESH NORTH AND NORTHEAST BREEZES ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THOSE WINDS WILL CLOCK AROUND EASTERLY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. EVERY NIGHT, BEGINNING TONIGHT,
CAUTIONARY TO BORDERLINE ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
NOCTURNAL WIND SURGES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
NO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY, SO FUELS WILL
RESUME A DRYING TREND. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A CRITICALLY DRY AIR MASS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, POSSIBLY LASTING INTO FRIDAY, WITH MIN RHS IN THE 20- 30%
RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WHILE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
LIGHT, THESE VERY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DRY FUELS COULD LEAD TO
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH SUNDAY. DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WILL THEREFORE PERSIST AND/OR WORSEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
TRI-STATE AREA. VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 61 81 51 80 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 64 81 54 81 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 55 78 47 80 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 56 78 47 79 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 58 81 48 79 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 59 85 52 80 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 65 80 58 78 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...OLIVER
LONG TERM....OLIVER
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...OLIVER
FIRE WEATHER...OLIVER
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
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