685
FXUS62 KTAE 221028
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
628 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 625 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
- DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH A DRY FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING, PUSHING MINIMUM RHS INTO
CRITICALLY DRY TERRITORY TODAY AND THURSDAY. FOLLOW LOCAL
OFFICIALS' ORDERS FOR BURN BANS AND OTHER GUIDANCE.
SHORT TERM & LONG TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
A DRY COLD FRONT CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL USHER IN A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR MASS OVERHEAD IN ITS WAKE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BUT THE
BIGGEST CHANGE WILL BE FELT IN THE LOW TEMPERATURES DUE TO A
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
NIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE 40S ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS. IF
WINDS END UP MORE CALM THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST, A FEW SPOTS OF
COOLER THAN EXPECTED TEMPS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
A MOISTENING TREND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN FRIDAY, WITH THE BIGGEST
CHANGE BEING FELT IN THE LOW TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW DEGREES
EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SIMILAR IF NOT SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO THE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER EACH DAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE.
SINCE THE REGION IS STARTING OUT SO DRY IN THE WAKE OF TODAY'S
FRONT, HOWEVER, SEVERAL DAYS OF INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BE NEEDED
BEFORE EVEN ISOLATED (~20%) RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO ENTER THE
FORECAST AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN THEN, NOT MUCH RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, AND WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
CEILINGS ARE HOVERING BETWEEN 3-5K FEET WITH THE CLOUDS JUST AHEAD
OF THIS MORNING'S COLD FRONT. A BRIEF BOUT OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE BEFORE CEILINGS LIFT AND THE CLOUDS
DISSIPATE AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS
TAKE OVER WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
WATERS THIS MORNING, FOLLOWED BY AN ABRUPT SHIFT TO
NORTH/NORTHEAST MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES TODAY AND THURSDAY.
THOSE WINDS WILL CLOCK AROUND EASTERLY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. BEGINNING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING,
CAUTIONARY TO BORDERLINE ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR OUR
WESTERNMOST WATERS; AND WILL CONTINUE NIGHTLY WITH THE NOCTURNAL
WIND SURGES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
NO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY, SO FUELS WILL
RESUME A DRYING TREND. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A CRITICALLY DRY AIR MASS
TODAY AND THURSDAY, POSSIBLY LASTING INTO FRIDAY, WITH MIN RHS IN
THE 20- 30% RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WHILE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN LIGHT, THESE VERY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DRY FUELS COULD
LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH SUNDAY. DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WILL THEREFORE PERSIST AND/OR WORSEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
TRI-STATE AREA. VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 81 50 80 48 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 81 53 81 55 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 78 45 80 46 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 78 44 79 46 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 81 46 79 46 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 85 50 80 48 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 80 56 77 59 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MERRIFIELD
LONG TERM....MERRIFIELD
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...MERRIFIELD
FIRE WEATHER...MERRIFIELD
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
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