996
FXUS62 KTAE 230110
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
910 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 909 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
- DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY, PUSHING
MINIMUM RHS INTO CRITICALLY DRY TERRITORY THROUGH FRIDAY.
FOLLOW LOCAL OFFICIALS' ORDERS FOR BURN BANS AND OTHER
GUIDANCE.
- OUR NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION ON SUNDAY,
HOWEVER CURRENT MODEL UNCERTAINTY PUTS PRECIP AMOUNTS BETWEEN
NEAR NIL AND AROUND AN INCH, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. STAY
TUNED FOR UPDATES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 909 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
EARLIER TODAY, THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD MAKE FOR A
NICE RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. HENCE, I ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE OF DEGREES THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
WE'LL REMAIN UNDER GENERALLY BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. DRY
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS WEEKEND WILL HELP TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE
A BIT ALLOWING DEW POINTS TO RECOVER INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S, AHEAD
OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL FEATURE ON SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY
WITH CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE ON HOW THIS FRONTAL FEATURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE EURO IS DEPICTING THE SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT LIFTING OUT AROUND ALABAMA AND GEORGIA, WHEREAS THE
GFS HAS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT FURTHER WEST BY MISSISSIPPI AND
LOUISIANA. THE FORMER MEANS WE'D HAVE BETTER FORCING FOR ASCENT
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE PRECIP AS THE FRONT STAYS INTACT.
WHEREAS THE LATTER WOULD MEAN FORCING FOR ASCENT QUICKLY DEPARTS
TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE FRONT BREAKS DOWN BEFORE IT GETS TO OUR
WESTERNMOST COUNTIES. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES, AS HIGH RES MODELS
START TO COME INTO RANGE.
EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES WILL MAKE FOR VFR CONDS THIS CYCLE. A VERY
DRY POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG/MIST. LIGHT NORTH
WINDS TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY TMRW MORNING, GENERALLY UNDER 10
KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TOMORROW. THESE WINDS WILL CLOCK AROUND TO BEING EASTERLY ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. CAUTIONARY TO
BORDERLINE ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR OUR WESTERNMOST
WATERS TONIGHT; AND WILL CONTINUE NIGHTLY WITH THE NOCTURNAL WIND
SURGES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
NO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY, SO FUELS WILL
CONTINUE A DRYING TREND. A CRITICALLY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO LAST INTO FRIDAY, WITH MIN RHS IN THE 20-30% RANGE FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. WHILE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT, THESE
VERY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DRY FUELS COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER. MIN RHS BEGIN TO RECOVER ON SATURDAY, INITIALLY IN THE MID
30% TO LOW 40%, INCREASING INTO THE 50-60% RANGE ON MONDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH SATURDAY. GUIDANCE IS
UNCERTAIN ON HOW MUCH PRECIP WE'LL GET WITH OUR NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
ON SUNDAY. CURRENTLY 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES IS MOST LIKELY, BUT IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW THE FRONT EVOLVES AS IT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL THEREFORE PERSIST
AND/OR WORSEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE TRI-STATE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 50 80 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 53 81 56 83 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 47 80 49 81 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 45 79 49 81 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 46 79 47 81 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 50 81 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 55 78 60 78 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...OLIVER
LONG TERM....OLIVER
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...OLIVER
FIRE WEATHER...OLIVER
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
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