923
FXUS62 KTAE 231516
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1116 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1115 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
- DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY, PUSHING
MINIMUM RHS INTO CRITICALLY DRY TERRITORY BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY.
FOLLOW LOCAL OFFICIALS' ORDERS FOR BURN BANS AND OTHER
GUIDANCE.
- OUR NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION ON SUNDAY,
HOWEVER CURRENT MODEL UNCERTAINTY PUTS PRECIP AMOUNTS BETWEEN
NEAR NIL AND AROUND AN INCH, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. STAY
TUNED FOR UPDATES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1115 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE, SO NO UPDATES NEEDED THIS MORNING.
SHORT TERM & LONG TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
A VERY DRY AIR MASS CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES DROPPING INTO THE 15-25% RANGE FOR MOST OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S BOTH THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
A MOISTENING TREND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN FRIDAY, WITH THE BIGGEST
CHANGE BEING FELT BY THE LOW TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW DEGREES
EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SIMILAR IF NOT SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO THE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER EACH DAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE.
SINCE THE REGION IS STARTING OUT SO DRY, HOWEVER, SEVERAL DAYS OF
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BE NEEDED BEFORE EVEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED (20-40%) RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. EXACT FORECAST RAINFALL IS A BIT TOO UNCERTAIN TO PARSE OUT
AT THIS TIME, BUT ENOUGH TO MAKE A MEANINGFUL DENT IN THE ONGOING
DROUGHT SEEMS UNLIKELY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
SKC WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A SUBTLE 25-30KT NORTHERLY LOW-
LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA. SO INCLUDED SOME LLWS AT THE TAF SITES
THAT HAVE A CALM WIND THIS MORNING AND SHOULD UNTIL MID-MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT.
THESE WINDS WILL CLOCK AROUND TO BEING EASTERLY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. CAUTIONARY TO BORDERLINE
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR OUR WATERS WEST OF
APALACHICOLA NIGHTLY WITH THE NOCTURNAL WIND SURGES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
NO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY, SO FUELS WILL
CONTINUE A DRYING TREND. A CRITICALLY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO LAST INTO FRIDAY, WITH MIN RHS IN THE 15-25% RANGE FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. WHILE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT, THESE
VERY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DRY FUELS COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY. MIN RHS BEGIN TO RECOVER ON SATURDAY,
INITIALLY IN THE MID 30% TO LOW 40%, INCREASING INTO THE 50-60%
RANGE ON MONDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH SATURDAY. GUIDANCE IS
UNCERTAIN ON HOW MUCH PRECIP WE'LL GET WITH OUR NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
ON SUNDAY. CURRENTLY 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES IS MOST LIKELY, BUT IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW THE FRONT EVOLVES AS IT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL THEREFORE PERSIST
AND/OR WORSEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE TRI-STATE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 80 48 83 54 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 81 55 83 59 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 80 48 82 51 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 79 48 81 50 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 79 47 82 52 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 81 47 83 56 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 77 56 79 64 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MERRIFIELD
LONG TERM....MERRIFIELD
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...MERRIFIELD
FIRE WEATHER...MERRIFIELD
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
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