572
FXUS62 KTAE 232321
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
721 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 721 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
- DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY, PUSHING
MINIMUM RHS INTO CRITICALLY DRY TERRITORY BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY.
FOLLOW LOCAL OFFICIALS' ORDERS FOR BURN BANS AND OTHER
GUIDANCE.
- OUR NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION ON SUNDAY,
HOWEVER CURRENT MODEL UNCERTAINTY PUTS PRECIP AMOUNTS BETWEEN
NEAR NIL AND AROUND AN INCH, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. STAY
TUNED FOR UPDATES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
BENIGN CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS CLOCK AROUND FROM
NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC TO
BEGIN INCREASING DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION. DEW POINTS INITIALLY
IN THE 30S THIS EVENING WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S BY SATURDAY EVENING.
THIS IS HAPPENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
SLIDES OFFSHORE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
THERE'S STILL DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE EURO AND GFS ON HOW TO TREAT
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY'S FRONTAL SYSTEM. OVERALL THE TWO HAVE REMAINED
FAIRLY CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN, WHERE THE EURO MAINTAINS A RATHER
ORGANIZED FRONT THAT SWEEPS THE AREA. CONVERSELY, THE GFS HAS A
DECAYING FRONT THAT BARELY PRODUCES MUCH FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER,
THE 500MB FLOW IN THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE EURO IN THAT THE
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO NOT BEGIN LIFTING/DEAMPLIFYING TO THE NORTHEAST
UNTIL IT REACHES ALABAMA/GEORGIA. THIS WOULD LEAD TO CONFIDENCE
INCREASING FOR MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
PWATS ALSO INCREASE INTO THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE WITH THE LOW LEVEL 850MB WINDS INCREASING TO SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN 20-35 KTS. THE MAIN INHIBITOR WILL BE TIMING GIVEN THAT THIS
IS EXPECTED TO BE A LATE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT PASSAGE, DIURNAL
INSTABILITY IS ALL BUT GONE, MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE LOW AND
CLOUD COVER WILL BE PLENTIFUL. THUS, IF THE LARGE SCALE FAILS TO
PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT, BE IT THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK, OR VIA PVA BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE DEAMPLIFIES,
THEN WE'LL HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING ANYTHING SEVERE COME OUT OF THIS
FRONTAL FEATURE. LIKEWISE, A LACK OF FORCING COULD IMPACT PRECIP
AMOUNTS THAT COME OUT OF THIS FRONT, AND THE SPREAD REMAINS WIDE,
WITH NEARLY NO RAINFALL TO 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE. WE'LL NEED TO HAVE
THE INGREDIENTS LINE UP JUST RIGHT TO SEE ANY MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION.
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WE'LL REMAIN IN GENERAL TROUGHINESS
AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTH QUICKLY BEHIND SUNDAY'S
SHORTWAVE LEADING TO A FULL FLEDGED TROUGH AND ITS CENTER TO MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES AS LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS MOVE OVERHEAD DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK,
INITIALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ON SUNDAY DROPPING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 70S BY MIDWEEK WITH A CONTINUED DROP INTO THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND WITH LOWS
INITIALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S MONDAY MORNING DROPPING INTO THE LOW
TO MID 50S BY MIDWEEK WITH A CONTINUED DROP INTO THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 721 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT.
THESE WINDS WILL CLOCK AROUND TO BEING EASTERLY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. CAUTIONARY TO BORDERLINE ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR OUR WATERS WEST OF APALACHICOLA NIGHTLY
WITH THE NOCTURNAL WIND SURGES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
NO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, SO FUELS
WILL CONTINUE A DRYING TREND. A CRITICALLY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE
TODAY IS EXPECTED TO LAST INTO FRIDAY, WITH MIN RHS IN THE 15-25%
RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WHILE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
LIGHT, THESE VERY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DRY FUELS COULD LEAD TO
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY. MIN RHS BEGIN
TO RECOVER ON SATURDAY, INITIALLY IN THE MID 30% TO LOW 40%,
INCREASING INTO THE 50-60% RANGE ON MONDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH SATURDAY. GUIDANCE IS
UNCERTAIN ON HOW MUCH PRECIP WE'LL GET WITH OUR NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
ON SUNDAY. CURRENTLY 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES IS MOST LIKELY, BUT IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW THE FRONT EVOLVES AS IT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL THEREFORE PERSIST
AND/OR WORSEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE TRI-STATE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 51 83 54 81 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 56 83 59 82 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 50 82 51 80 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 49 81 49 78 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 49 82 52 80 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 51 83 55 84 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 60 79 64 78 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...OLIVER
LONG TERM....OLIVER
AVIATION...SCHOLL
MARINE...OLIVER
FIRE WEATHER...OLIVER
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
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