777
FXUS62 KTAE 241000
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
600 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 540 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
- DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING WITH
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO CRITICALLY LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES PAIRED WITH THE ONGOING DROUGHT.
FOLLOW LOCAL OFFICIALS' ORDERS FOR BURN BANS AND OTHER
GUIDANCE.
- OUR NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH A 40-60% CHANCE OF RAIN. THIS IS UNLIKELY TO BE A
DROUGHT BUSTER WITH AMOUNTS STAYING RELATIVELY LIGHT AT UNDER
AN INCH FOR MOST AREAS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
ANOTHER DRY DAY IS ON TAP TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF US
CONTINUING TO ADVECT A VERY DRY AIRMASS INTO THE AREA WITH NORTHEAST
WINDS. AFTER A COOL START THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
QUICKLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS.
FOR SATURDAY, THERE IS NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT OTHER THAN AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS WITH SLIGHTLY VEERING SURFACE WINDS TO A MORE EASTERLY
DIRECTION AS OPPOSED TO NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
DEWPOINTS A BIT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS MOSTLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
80.
FOR SUNDAY, MORE NOTABLE CHANGES START TO OCCUR AS AN UPPER TROUGH
TO OUR WEST MOVES CLOSER. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY, AND 20-30% CHANCES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
APPROACHING ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, PROVIDING OUR NEXT BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL, THE SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES, AND SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. RAIN CHANCES CURRENTLY PEAK AT 40-60% LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CLIMB ABOVE 1.5 INCHES, BUT OVERALL THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A BIG
RAIN MAKER WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH. AFTER MONDAY, A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT MAY ARRIVE AROUND WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS, BUT IT LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
RAIN. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK BEHIND
THAT SECOND FRONT WITH HIGHS DIPPING BACK INTO THE 60S AND LOWS IN
THE 40S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 600 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH EXERCISE
CAUTION TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY AS WINDS EXCEED 20 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
NO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, SO FUELS
WILL CONTINUE A DRYING TREND. A CRITICALLY DRY AIR MASS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH MIN RHS IN THE 15-25% RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. WHILE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT, THESE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DRY FUELS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
THIS AFTERNOON. MIN RHS BEGIN TO RECOVER ON SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A 40-60% CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY,
WIDESPREAD HEAVY AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED. MOST AREAS WILL PICK UP
LESS THAN AN INCH, ALTHOUGH A FEW LUCKY LOCATIONS COULD SEE OVER AN
INCH. THIS WILL NOT BE A DROUGHT BUSTING RAIN. VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE ONGOING
DROUGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 83 53 80 59 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 83 58 82 62 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 82 52 79 56 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 81 48 78 55 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 82 50 79 57 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 83 53 83 60 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 79 62 77 66 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO
2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR GMZ751-752-755-770-772-775.
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD
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