333
FXUS62 KTAE 241840
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
240 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER,
HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
- HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ON
SUNDAY. FOLLOW LOCAL OFFICIALS' ORDERS FOR BURN BANS AND OTHER
GUIDANCE.
- STRONG EAST BREEZES WILL BLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, CREATING HAZARDOUS MARINE AND BEACH
CONDITIONS. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY
MORNING AT THE BEACHES, THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
- THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY, IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 INCH
OR LESS ARE EXPECTED. ANYTHING IS BENEFICIAL, BUT THESE AMOUNTS
WILL FALL SHORT OF DENTING THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW IN RECENT DAYS WILL TURN EASTERLY THIS
EVENING, BECOMING GUSTY AT TIMES ON SATURDAY AS WE COME UNDER A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE PERIPHERY OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
THE TRAJECTORY OF EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS MODIFYING ATLANTIC WATERS WILL
START TO INCREASE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON SATURDAY. SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS WILL SPREAD IN
FROM THE EAST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON, SERVING AS A VISUAL CUE OF
THE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY, THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATE
SUNDAY WHILE DEAMPLIFYING. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY. IT WILL TAKE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT TO GET A TURN TO
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE COAST, SO THE OPPORTUNITY TO
PUSH SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY INLAND IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE LIMITED, ESPECIALLY WITH A COLD AIR WEDGE WILL
NOSING DOWN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN OF THE CAROLINAS. SO
NOTHING MORE THAN WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED INLAND
OF COASTAL COMMUNITIES. THIS MEANS COASTAL COMMUNITIES STAND THE
BEST CHANCE OF ACHIEVING MODERATE INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE SEEING
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR MOST FOLKS, THE MAIN STORY LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY WILL
SIMPLY BE SOME BENEFICIAL RAIN. HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE OVER OUR CENTRAL TIME ZONE COUNTIES. EVEN THERE, RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN 1 INCH OR LESS, WHICH WOULD NOT
SUBSTANTIALLY DENT THE DROUGHT. AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
TIME ZONE, IT SHOULD BE WEAKENING AND DIMINISHING, SO AMOUNT UNDER
1/2 INCH ARE MORE LIKELY THERE.
BEYOND MONDAY, WHAT WE KNOW CONFIDENTLY IS THAT A SLOW-MOVING AND
BLOCKED SOUTHERN STREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE AMPLIFYING,
DIGGING AND STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH ABOUT
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING REPEATED SHOTS OF INCREASINGLY COOL OR
COLD AIR IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE DECIDEDLY BELOW NORMAL.
WHAT IS LESS CERTAIN AT THIS TIME RANGE ARE THE DETAILS OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES NEXT WEEK, BOTH IN TERMS OF TIMING AND HOW
THE FRONTS COULD INTERACT WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IN THE BASE OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. ON ONE HAND, THERE WILL BE LITTLE
MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THE MIDWEEK FRONTS, BUT IT IS ALSO
HARD TO IGNORE THE DYNAMICS AND LARGER-SCALE LIFT THAT COULD COME
INTO PLAY. FOR NOW, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CARRIES 10-20 PERCENT
RAIN CHANCES AROUND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH ROOM FOR SMALL
UPWARD REVISIONS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. WINDS BECOME
EASTERLY ON SATURDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
STRONG EASTERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF WATER FROM
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, THANKS TO A TIGHT GRADIENT ON
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. WINDS
WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT, IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL PASS EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS ON MONDAY. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE WATERS AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWED BY STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
THE AIR MASS IS CRITICALLY DRY THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
WIDESPREAD RH OF 20-27 PERCENT. THE AIR MASS WILL START TO
MOISTEN ON SATURDAY, AS GUSTY EASTERLY FLOW STARTS TO BRING IN
HUMIDITY FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC. ON SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST, BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THE DISTRICTS EARLY MONDAY MORNING,
LIKELY PRECEDED AROUND SUNDAY EVENING BY WETTING RAINS, MOST
CONFIDENTLY IN DISTRICTS WEST OF THE FLINT AND APALACHICOLA
RIVERS. THE MAIN STORY NEXT WEEK WILL BE MULTIPLE COLD FRONTS,
EACH BRINGING INCREASINGLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASSES.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BE PRECEDED BY SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
MOSTLY BE UNDER 1 INCH. THIS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH RAIN TO CAUSE
FLOODING, NOR WILL IT BE ENOUGH RAIN TO SUBSTANTIALLY DENT THE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT FOR MORE INFORMATION ON
THE ONGOING DROUGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 53 80 59 81 / 0 0 0 10
PANAMA CITY 58 82 62 80 / 0 0 0 30
DOTHAN 52 79 56 78 / 0 0 0 20
ALBANY 48 78 55 77 / 0 0 0 10
VALDOSTA 50 79 57 80 / 0 0 0 10
CROSS CITY 53 83 60 85 / 0 0 0 10
APALACHICOLA 62 77 66 77 / 0 0 0 20
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO
2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR GMZ751-752-755-770-772-775.
SHORT TERM...HANER
LONG TERM....HANER
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...HANER
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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