459
FXUS62 KTAE 251026
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
626 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 624 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
- HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ON
SUNDAY. FOLLOW LOCAL OFFICIALS' ORDERS FOR BURN BANS AND OTHER
GUIDANCE.
- STRONG EAST BREEZES WILL BLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING, CREATING HAZARDOUS MARINE AND BEACH
CONDITIONS. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO CONTINUE AT
THE BEACHES THROUGH MONDAY.
- THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND
1 INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED. ANYTHING IS BENEFICIAL, BUT THESE
AMOUNTS WILL FALL SHORT OF ENDING THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
FOR TODAY, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE LOCALLY. TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND SLIGHTLY VEERING SURFACE WINDS TO A
MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION AS OPPOSED TO NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE DEWPOINTS A BIT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS MOSTLY WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF 80.
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT, BUT DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS TO THE MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
FOR SUNDAY, MORE NOTABLE CHANGES START TO OCCUR AS AN UPPER TROUGH
TO OUR WEST MOVES CLOSER. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HOWEVER, MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AHEAD
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. THERE WILL NOT BE A LOT OF TIME
FOR DEEP MOISTURE RECOVERY, AND THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL BE GRADUALLY
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. NEVERTHELESS, SOME
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA WITH A WEAKENING AREA OF RAIN PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
BEYOND MONDAY, UNCERTAINTY INCREASES WITH HOW THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN WILL EVOLVE. THE DISAGREEMENT REVOLVES AROUND HOW FAR SOUTH
AND WEST A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
SOME GUIDANCE DIGS THIS SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH TO OUR WEST TO BRING US
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN, WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
MOISTURE STARVED WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS. EITHER WAY, THE AIRMASS
BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER TO END THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH MAINLY HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS PASSING
OVERHEAD. A LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME MVFR CIGS AT VLD TOWARD
SUNRISE SUNDAY. WINDS E/NE AROUND 5-10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 156 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
STRONG EASTERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING THANKS TO A TIGHT GRADIENT ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL TURN MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL PASS EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS ON MONDAY. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE WATERS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, FOLLOWED BY STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 156 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, SO FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY. MIN RHS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A 40-70% CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNING TO THE AREA
ON LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE HIGHEST CHANCE
OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 156 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BE PRECEDED BY SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL MOSTLY BE UNDER 1 INCH, BUT SOME AREAS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE COULD SEE AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 1 INCH, PARTICULARLY NEAR
THE COAST.
VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE
ONGOING DROUGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 82 61 81 64 / 0 0 10 50
PANAMA CITY 82 63 81 66 / 0 0 20 60
DOTHAN 80 58 78 60 / 0 0 20 70
ALBANY 78 57 78 59 / 0 0 10 60
VALDOSTA 80 60 81 62 / 0 0 10 50
CROSS CITY 85 62 84 65 / 0 0 10 30
APALACHICOLA 78 67 78 68 / 0 0 10 50
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR FLZ108-112.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR FLZ114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR
GMZ751-752-755-770-772-775.
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD
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