244
FXUS62 KTAE 261016
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
616 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 616 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
- A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS FOR
THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A
BRIEF TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY CLOSE TO THE COAST.
- STRONG EAST BREEZES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, CREATING HAZARDOUS MARINE AND BEACH
CONDITIONS. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE AT THE
BEACHES THROUGH MONDAY.
- A WETTING RAIN WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE REGION FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WHILE MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN
AROUND 1 INCH OR LESS, A FEW PLACES COULD PICK UP OVER 2 INCHES
OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
A SLOW-MOVING BAND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE AREA WILL
PUSH CLOSER TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVE EASTWARD. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. IN TERMS OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT,
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW FAVORABLE VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT, BUT THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR IS INSTABILITY. MOST GUIDANCE HAS VERY LIMITED
INSTABILITY OVER INLAND AREAS WITH A SHARP GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST.
IF ANY SEVERE WEATHER OCCURS, THEN IT'S MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR NEAR
THE COAST. BECAUSE OF THE FAVORABLE VEERING WIND PROFILE, A BRIEF
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT CLOSE TO THE COAST. THE SPC HAS A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS COULD LINGER WELL INTO MONDAY, AS THE TRAILING
UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES BY.
FOR THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM, THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. A STRONG, REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BLAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST ROUNDS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND THEN DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE,
BUT THE ATMOSPHERIC LIFT THAT WILL COME WITH A STRONG 500 MB HEIGHT
FALL CENTER PASSING ACROSS GEORGIA, ALONG WITH SHARP FOCUS ALONG THE
COLD FRONT, COULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN
AROUND WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BEHIND THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL QUICKLY USHER
IN THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS FALL SEASON. MANY PLACES COULD SEE
HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 60S ON THURSDAY. FOR HALLOWEEN,
TEMPERATURES WILL MOST LIKELY BE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, SO BE READY TO BUNDLE UP THOSE GHOSTS
AND GOBLINS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 616 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
LOW CLOUDS HAVE BECOME MORE EXPANSIVE AND PERSISTENT AT ALL
BUT ECP WITH THE EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AND ARE NOW EXPECTED
AT TIMES THRU 14Z UNTIL LIFTING FURTHER. AFOREMENTIONED 35 KT
LLJ AT 1.5K FT PER VWP PROFILERS IS LEADING TO LLWS DUE TO
WEAK SFC WINDS AT VLD AND ECP, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
UNTIL ~14Z. LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE
TERMINALS TONIGHT W/THUNDER POSSIBLE AT DHN AND ECP. CANNOT
RULE OUT TSRA EARLIER AT DHN/ECP WITH A PROB30 FROM 21-00Z.
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AROUND 01-05Z AT ALL TERMINALS
WITH LOWER VSBYS AT TIMES AT ECP W/HEAVIER RAINFALL IN TSRA.
FURTHER LOWERING OF CIGS TO IFR EXPECTED AROUND 06-10Z WITH
A LOWER PROBABILITY OF THIS AT ECP WHERE MVFR IS MAINTAINED
FOR NOW; ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF LIFR AT DHN/VLD.
OUTSIDE OF A LULL IN OVERNIGHT WINDS AT ECP AND VLD, EASTERLY
WINDS AROUND 10 KT CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD ALL TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
STRONG EASTERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO A TIGHT GRADIENT ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL TURN
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A
WEAK LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD NEAR OR JUST OFF THE COAST.
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE WATERS AROUND
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY STRONG AND POSSIBLY NEAR GALE NORTHERLY
BREEZES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
MANY PLACES WILL PICK UP A WETTING RAIN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF A WETTING RAIN OVER THE PANHANDLE DISTRICTS.
MOST PLACES WILL PICK UP LESS THAN 1 INCH OF RAIN, BUT A FEW COASTAL
PANHANDLE DISTRICTS COULD GET OVER 2 INCHES. FOLLOWING THE RAIN, A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS ON MONDAY. ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN AND THEN LIKELY BE
FOLLOWED BY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ON THURSDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY WILL BE PRECEDED BY SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING. WHILE MOST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND 1 INCH OR LESS, SOME AREAS ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COULD SEE AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME, PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST.
VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE
ONGOING DROUGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 81 66 77 58 / 10 70 70 10
PANAMA CITY 80 67 79 59 / 30 80 50 10
DOTHAN 77 61 70 55 / 30 90 60 20
ALBANY 77 60 68 54 / 20 90 80 30
VALDOSTA 81 65 74 57 / 10 70 80 20
CROSS CITY 85 66 82 60 / 10 50 70 10
APALACHICOLA 78 68 78 61 / 20 70 50 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR FLZ108-112-114-
115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT /2 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR GMZ751-752-755-770-772-775.
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD
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