350
FXUS62 KTAE 261807
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
207 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
- A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS
FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL
COMMUNITIES OF THE EMERALD AND FORGOTTEN COASTS. ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A BRIEF TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY
CLOSE TO THE COAST.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING OVER COASTAL COMMUNITIES IN THE
PANHANDLE. THE HIGH-END RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN ISOLATED SPOTS
WILL BE 4 TO 7 INCHES. THE REST OF THE REGION WILL SEE
BENEFICIAL RAINS OF 1/2 TO 2 INCHES.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY AT THE
BEACHES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
THE SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING
EAST FROM NEAR BATON ROUGE, AND A WELL DEFINED STATIONARY OR WARM
FRONT EXTENDING EAST NEAR THE COAST OF MS, AL, AND NW FL. IN THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CLOSE TO THAT FRONT, THERE HAVE ALREADY
BEEN CONFIRMED TORNADOES OVER SE MS TODAY, ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL
STRONGLY ROTATING CELLS EARLIER ALONG THE COAST OF AL. THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL FURTHER EAST ALONG THE EMERALD AND FORGOTTEN COASTS
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON WHERE THAT FRONT
SETS UP, ESPECIALLY WHETHER IT SETS UP ALONG THE COAST OR SAFELY
OFF THE COAST.
AS YOU MOVE NORTH FROM THE FRONT, SURFACE TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON COOL OFF INTO THE 60S, AND THE LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS
QUICKLY STABILIZES. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT, SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 70S, AND YOU GET INTO A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE SURFACE-BASED AIR MASS. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT, THE LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE STRONGLY VEERS FROM STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST FLOW ALOFT.
WHEN CONSIDERING MODERATE INSTABILITY AND THE LOW-LEVEL WIND
PROFILE, IT IS AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORING THE SEVERE WEATHER ALONG
THE COAST OFF TO OUR WEST.
THE WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR BATON ROUGE WILL MAKE SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS THROUGH TONIGHT. TO ITS EAST, THE WARM FRONT WILL TRY TO
PUSH NORTH TO NEAR EMERALD COAST BEACHES THIS EVENING, THEN THE
FORGOTTEN COAST OVERNIGHT. IF THE WARM FRONT CAN MOVE ONTO THE
COAST, THEN THE PROSPECT FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING TORNADOES
WILL GO UP MARKEDLY. IF THE FRONT STAYS MORE THAN A FEW MILES
OFFSHORE, THEN WE WOULD SIMPLY BE WATCHING SPINNERS OFFSHORE THAT
FALL APART AS THEY REACH THE COAST. SO THE SETUP FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL, DEPENDING ON JUST A SHORT
DIFFERENCE IN FRONTAL LOCATION.
THE SLOW-MOVING WARM FRONT WILL ALSO ACT AS AN ANCHOR FOR
BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING CONVECTION. SIMILARLY, IF THE WARM FRONT
SETS UP NEAR THE COAST OR JUST INLAND, THEN COASTAL COMMUNITIES
WOULD BE IN FOR ENOUGH RAIN TO BRING URBANIZED FLOODING AND RUNOFF
ISSUES.
REGARDING TIMING, THE BEST ODDS OF SEVERE WEATHER ALONG THE
EMERALD COAST WILL COME LATE THIS EVENING. FURTHER EAST TOWARD
APALACHICOLA, THE HIGHEST ODDS WILL BE DURING THE WEE DARK HOURS
ON MONDAY MORNING.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH EAST OF THE U.S. 19 CORRIDOR AROUND MIDDAY
MONDAY. IN ITS WAKE, A TURN TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PUSH
THE COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR OFFSHORE. EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT,
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY BENEATH AN UPPER
TROUGH WITH GOOD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, BEFORE ENDING ALTOGETHER ON
MONDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
THE MAIN STORY WILL BE A STRONG REINFORCING COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A STRONG NORTHWEST
BREEZE ON THURSDAY AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD
INTO HALLOWEEN.
A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH NOW TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES
WILL RACE SOUTHEAST, CROSSING THE MID-SOUTH REGION ON WEDNESDAY
AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL READILY
DRIVE A STRONG REINFORCING FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
THE FRONT WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE, BUT DYNAMICAL LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
AND THE SHARPNESS OF THE SURFACE FRONT COULD WRING OUT A FEW
SHOWERS OR SOME LIGHT RAIN ON WED AND WED EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY POST-FRONTAL
WINDS ON THURSDAY. PEAK LAND-BASED GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH APPEAR MOST
LIKELY AT THIS POINT. THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY SHOULD
FEATURE TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST NIGHT THIS WEEK. SOME OF OUR COLD-
POCKET LOCATIONS IN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA COULD EVEN GET THE FIRST
LIGHT FROST OF THE SEASON ON SATURDAY MORNING. BE SURE THAT YOUR
CANDY HUNTERS ON FRIDAY NIGHT CAN ADD SOME WARMTH TO THEIR
COSTUMES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS TONIGHT
W/THUNDER POSSIBLE AT DHN AND ECP. CANNOT RULE OUT TSRA EARLIER AT
DHN/ECP WITH A PROB30 FROM 21-00Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP
AROUND 01-05Z AT ALL TERMINALS WITH LOWER VSBYS AT TIMES AT ECP
W/HEAVIER RAINFALL IN TSRA. FURTHER LOWERING OF CIGS TO IFR EXPECTED
AROUND 06-10Z WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY OF THIS AT ECP WHERE MVFR IS
MAINTAINED FOR NOW; ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF LIFR AT
DHN/VLD. OUTSIDE OF A LULL IN OVERNIGHT WINDS AT ECP AND VLD,
EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD ALL
TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS AN EAST-WEST STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS PARKED NEAR THE
COAST. A WEAK TRAILING LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT MONDAY MORNING, TRAILED BY A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL BRING A SHIFT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO MODERATE
NORTHERLY BREEZES. AN EVEN STRONGER REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL
BLAST ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY BY STRONG TO POSSIBLY NEAR-GALE NORTHWEST BREEZES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING
FOR NEARLY ALL DISTRICTS, WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE DAY
ON MONDAY. MOST DISTRICTS WILL GET 1/2 INCH TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN,
THOUGH ISOLATED SPOTS NEAR THE PANHANDLE COAST COULD GET 4 TO 7
INCHES. AS THIS RAIN-MAKING SYSTEM EXITS LATER MONDAY, A COLD
FRONT WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR. A STRONGER REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY
STRONG NORTHWEST WIND AND MUCH COLDER AIR ON THURSDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT FOR PANHANDLE COASTAL COMMUNITIES. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL
LINGER NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. IF IT
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST, THEN IT COULD SERVE AS AN ANCHOR FOR
REPEATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONAL ON THE FRONT BEING
CLOSE ENOUGH TO SHORE, ISOLATED HIGH-END RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO
7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD MAINLY CAUSE ISSUES IN URBANIZED
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION, RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY WILL MAINLY RANGE FROM 1/2 INCH TO 2 INCHES. IN OUR
DROUGHT-STRICKEN REGION, THIS WILL BE A BENEFICIAL RAIN AND NOT
LEAD TO FLOODING.
ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL NOT BE
HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT, AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 66 77 58 69 / 70 70 10 0
PANAMA CITY 67 79 59 72 / 80 50 10 0
DOTHAN 61 70 55 66 / 90 60 20 0
ALBANY 60 68 54 65 / 90 80 30 10
VALDOSTA 65 74 57 67 / 70 80 20 0
CROSS CITY 66 82 60 75 / 50 70 10 0
APALACHICOLA 68 78 61 71 / 70 50 10 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR FLZ108-112-114-
115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ751-
752-770-772.
SHORT TERM...HANER
LONG TERM....HANER
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...HANER
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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