602
FXUS62 KTAE 271425
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1025 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1017 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
- ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A BRIEF TORNADO REMAIN
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL COMMUNITIES OF THE EMERALD
AND FORGOTTEN COASTS.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING OVER COASTAL COMMUNITIES IN THE PANHANDLE. THE HIGH-END
RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN ISOLATED SPOTS IS 4 TO 6 INCHES. THE REST
OF THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO SEE BENEFICIAL RAINS OF 1/2 TO 2
INCHES.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY AT THE
BEACHES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1017 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
THE MAIN CHANGES TO TODAY'S FORECAST WERE ADJUSTING RAIN CHANCES,
TEMPERATURES, AND DEW POINTS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. THE AXIS OF
STRONGEST CONVECTION IS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE FORGOTTEN COAST AND
EXTENDING OFFSHORE WITH MORE STRATIFORM RAIN AS YOU MOVE INLAND.
EXPECT THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
SE FL BIG BEND WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST IN PROXIMITY TO A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE SOUTH. ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN AND/OR
GUSTY WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE, LOOK FOR GLOOMY SKIES ALL DAY AND ON/OFF WRAP- AROUND
SHOWERS ON THE BACK SIDE OF A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO EXCEED 80 DEGREES IN
NORTH FL AND 70 DEGREES IN THE WIREGRASS/NORTHERN-TIER SW GA
COUNTIES THANKS TO THICK CLOUD COVER.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
A CLUSTER OF STORMS WEST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE
COASTAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING, BRINGING WITH IT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
TORNADO. IN ADDITION, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME
COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. THESE THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO NEAR THE COAST, AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
IS EXPECTED TO SEE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM AND THE
COLDER AIR THAT WILL FOLLOW. A STRONG REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A STRONG NORTHWEST
BREEZE ON THURSDAY AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD
INTO HALLOWEEN.
A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH WILL RACE SOUTHEAST, CROSSING THE MID-SOUTH
REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY. THIS
WILL READILY DRIVE A STRONG REINFORCING FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE, BUT DYNAMICAL
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
AND THE SHARPNESS OF THE SURFACE FRONT COULD WRING OUT A FEW SHOWERS
OR SOME LIGHT RAIN ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY POST-FRONTAL
WINDS ON THURSDAY. PEAK LAND-BASED GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH APPEAR MOST
LIKELY AT THIS POINT. THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY SHOULD FEATURE
TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FRIDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE THE COLDEST NIGHT THIS WEEK. SOME OF OUR COLDEST LOCATIONS
IN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA COULD EVEN GET THE FIRST LIGHT FROST OF THE
SEASON ON SATURDAY MORNING. BE SURE THAT YOUR CANDY HUNTERS ON
FRIDAY NIGHT CAN ADD SOME WARMTH TO THEIR COSTUMES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
LOW CIGS WITH FLT RESTRICTIONS FROM CONVECTION ARE THE MAIN STORY
FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. ALL TERMINALS, WITH SOME EXCEPTION FOR ECP,
ARE FCST TO BE SOCKED INTO IFR-MVFR CONDS TODAY. PRECIP AFFECTS
ALL SITES THIS MORNING-AFTN, FOLLOWED BY SOME WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS
INTO THE EVENING. WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS OVERTAKES THE AREA
TONIGHT AND IS FCST TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY CIGS OF 500 FT OR LOWER
AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE. PREDOMINANTLY EAST WINDS TURN MORE
NORTHERLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AOB 8 KTS AWAY FROM T-STORMS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS THIS MORNING, TRAILED BY A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING A WIND
SHIFT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY BREEZES BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AN EVEN STRONGER REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL BLAST ACROSS THE WATERS
ON WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BY STRONG TO
POSSIBLY NEAR-GALE NORTHWEST BREEZES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING FOR NEARLY ALL
DISTRICTS, WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE DAY. MOST DISTRICTS
WILL GET 1/2 INCH TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN, THOUGH ISOLATED SPOTS NEAR
THE PANHANDLE COAST COULD GET 4 TO 6 INCHES. AS THIS RAIN-MAKING
SYSTEM EXITS, A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR. A STRONGER
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY STRONG NORTHWEST WIND AND MUCH COLDER AIR ON
THURSDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
THIS MORNING FOR PANHANDLE COASTAL COMMUNITIES. A STATIONARY FRONT
WILL LINGER NEAR THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. IF IT CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE COAST, THEN IT COULD SERVE AS AN ANCHOR FOR REPEATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONAL ON THE FRONT BEING CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SHORE, ISOLATED HIGH-END RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD MAINLY CAUSE ISSUES IN URBANIZED AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 77 58 71 54 / 80 10 0 0
PANAMA CITY 80 58 74 57 / 60 10 0 10
DOTHAN 72 55 68 53 / 50 0 0 10
ALBANY 69 56 65 53 / 80 10 0 10
VALDOSTA 76 57 67 53 / 70 10 0 0
CROSS CITY 81 61 75 53 / 50 10 0 0
APALACHICOLA 78 60 73 58 / 90 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
FLZ108-112-114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
UPDATE...IG3
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD
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