573
FXUS62 KTAE 271850
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
250 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
- ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A BRIEF TORNADO REMAIN
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL COMMUNITIES OF THE EMERALD
AND FORGOTTEN COASTS.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING OVER COASTAL COMMUNITIES IN THE PANHANDLE. THE HIGH-END
RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN ISOLATED SPOTS IS 4 TO 6 INCHES. THE REST
OF THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO SEE BENEFICIAL RAINS OF 1/2 TO 2
INCHES.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY AT THE
BEACHES.
SHORT TERM & LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
A COLD FRONT TRAILING THIS MORNING'S STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE. CLOUD COVER FROM WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY STICK
AROUND INTO TUESDAY, CAUSING HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA TO STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH OFFSHORE WINDS BEFORE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF ONSHORE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT REINFORCING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE MUCH STRONGER THAN TODAY'S WITH
THE PARENT TROUGH AND AIR MASS PLUNGING SOUTHWARD ALL THE WAY
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE REGION
ACCOMPANIES THIS FRONT AS WELL, ALTHOUGH LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP OVERALL RAIN
CHANCES AND FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE LOWER SIDE. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES, BUT ENOUGH
TO MAKE A DENT IN THE ONGOING DROUGHT APPEARS UNLIKELY.
DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS SECOND
FRONT, WITH EVEN HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY FAILING TO WARM OUT OF
THE 60S ON THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 40S ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND EVEN LOWER ON FRIDAY
NIGHT THANKS TO FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING. FRIDAY NIGHT COULD
SEE SOME AREAS WITH LOWS WELL INTO THE 30S FOR THE FIRST TIME
THIS SEASON. A SLOW BUT STEADY WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND WILL
HAVE TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO LINGER MOST, IF NOT
ALL, OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR KABY, KVLD, AND KDHN WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR VLIFR AT TIMES LATER THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE, KECP AND KTLH ARE FORECAST TO HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR
CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CEILINGS DROP TO IFR TO LIFR THIS
EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
WINDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST AT
LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BECOMING
NORTHWEST TO NORTH IN ITS WAKE. AN EVEN STRONGER REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL BLAST ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BY STRONG TO POSSIBLY NEAR-GALE
NORTHWEST BREEZES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE AND COASTAL BIG BEND HAVE RECEIVED
AROUND 1 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL SO FAR THIS MORNING, WITH AREAS
ELSEWHERE SEEING 0 TO ABOUT 0.5 INCH. AS THIS RAIN-MAKING SYSTEM
EXITS LATER TODAY, A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR. A STRONGER
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY STRONG NORTHWEST WIND AND MUCH COLDER AIR ON
THURSDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF RAINFALL TOTALS WERE OBSERVED FROM TODAY'S
SYSTEM, WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS CLOSER TO THE COAST. AREAS ALONG
THE COAST MAY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS AS A
RESULT. AREAS FURTHER INLAND, PARTICULARLY SE AL, THE FL BIG BEND,
AND S GA, LIKELY DID NOT SEE ENOUGH RAIN TODAY TO MAKE ANY
MEANINGFUL PROGRESS TOWARDS DROUGHT IMPROVEMENT. WHILE THERE IS
SOME RAIN IN THE FORECAST AGAIN WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD
FRONT, HEAVY RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED AND WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE. NO HEAVY RAINFALL OR FLOODING ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 77 59 71 53 / 80 10 0 0
PANAMA CITY 80 58 74 57 / 60 10 0 10
DOTHAN 72 55 69 52 / 70 10 0 20
ALBANY 69 55 65 52 / 70 20 0 0
VALDOSTA 76 57 67 52 / 70 10 0 0
CROSS CITY 81 61 76 53 / 50 10 0 0
APALACHICOLA 78 59 74 58 / 90 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
FLZ108-112-114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MERRIFIELD
LONG TERM....MERRIFIELD
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...MERRIFIELD
FIRE WEATHER...MERRIFIELD
HYDROLOGY...MERRIFIELD/GODSEY
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