901
FXUS62 KTAE 092324
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
624 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2025
...UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR TO IMPACT THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 623 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2025
- FOLLOWING A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING, AN
ABRUPT TURN TO COLD AND WINDY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST KILLING FROST AND/OR FREEZE OF
THE SEASON IS EXPECTED FOR ALL BUT BEACHFRONT COMMUNITIES ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS ALL NORTHEAST GULF WATERS.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE IN WATERS
WEST OF APALACHICOLA.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR ALL
OF OUR FLORIDA COUNTIES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2025
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A FEW PRODUCING SEVERE WIND AND HAIL ACROSS SOUTHERN
GEORGIA. UNIDIRECTIONAL HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG INSTABILITY FROM
CLEARING EARLIER HAS ALLOWED STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED,
CONTRIBUTING TO THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF SUNSET AS THE COLD
FRONT QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WE'LL SEE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS, LEADING TO WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S
MONDAY MORNING, AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS OUR GULF WATERS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. THERE WILL BE ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER ON MONDAY AS DEW POINTS TANK WITH DRY NORTHERLY AIR MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION, CONTINUING AND WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, AND
GUSTY WINDS ALL CONTRIBUTING TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF OUR FL
COUNTIES. THERE'S THE POTENTIAL TO SEE RED FLAG CONDITIONS BEING MET
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WE'LL BEGIN TO SEE WINDS GRADUALLY
DECREASE AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO DIVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
REGION. ACTUAL OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRUTAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY BREAKING OR NEARING RECORD
COLD. WIDESPREAD TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S WITH COASTAL AREAS
SEEING LOW 30S EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, BUT
STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH WIND CHILLS TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOW 20S. THERE IS CURRENTLY A FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT
MONDAY NIGHT FOR SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ON MONDAY,
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S TONIGHT AND
IN THE 20S TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2025
TUESDAY AND BEYOND WE'LL START TO GRADUALLY RECOVER FROM THIS FLASH
FREEZE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD, WINDS
WEAKEN AND A SLOW GRADUAL WARM UP BEGINS. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING EXPECT IT TO STILL BE COLD, HOVERING AROUND
FREEZING, BUT WITH CALM WINDS AT LEAST COLDER WIND CHILLS WON'T BE A
CONCERN. THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET AND BENIGN THROUGH SATURDAY.
EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO WARM UP NICELY AFTER TUESDAY. THEY'LL
INITIALLY BE IN THE MID 50S ON TUESDAY WARMING UP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S BY SATURDAY. A SIMILAR TREND IS EXPECTED WITH OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPS WITH THOSE BEING IN THE LOW 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING WARMING
UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S BY SATURDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2025
STORMS ARE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND THE FRONT, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
FROM WEST TO EAST WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2025
A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT WITH MARINE CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATING BEHIND
FRONTAL PASSAGE. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTS OCCASIONALLY TO GALE FORCE, ESPECIALLY IN
WATERS WEST OF APALACHICOLA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FEET IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND 4 TO
8 FEET IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THUS, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO
DECREASE LATE TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST US AND NORTHEAST GULF WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2025
THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF NEAR CRITICALLY
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES, CONTINUED DROUGHT CONDITIONS, AND
GUSTY WINDS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT ACROSS
ALL OF OUR FLORIDA COUNTIES IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES IN THE LOW TO MID 20 PERCENT RANGE BUT STRONGER
WINDS WILL DIMINISH.
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THIS FALL SEASON ARE ON TAP WITH THE
FIRST KILLING FROST AND FREEZE EXPECTED FOR ALL BUT IMMEDIATE
COASTAL LOCATIONS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2025
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH TODAY'S FAST MOVING STORMS HAVE INSIGNIFICANT
IN IMPROVING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, BUT HAVE RANGED BETWEEN 0.25 AND
0.75 INCHES WHEREVER RAIN HAS FALLEN. RAINFALL THROUGH SATURDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE NIL, DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL THEREFORE PERSIST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE TRI-STATE AREA.
VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT FOR MORE INFORMATION.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 42 53 30 56 / 20 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 42 54 33 58 / 10 0 0 0
DOTHAN 37 49 25 55 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 39 49 26 54 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 41 53 27 54 / 20 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 45 59 28 57 / 20 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 43 54 33 56 / 10 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FREEZE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-
426.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
326-426.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ MONDAY FOR
FLZ114.
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161.
AL...FREEZE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
ALZ065>069.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR GMZ730-755-765-775.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ751-752-770-
772.
SHORT TERM...OLIVER
LONG TERM....OLIVER
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...OLIVER
FIRE WEATHER...OLIVER
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
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