025
FXUS62 KTAE 100711
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
211 AM EST MON NOV 10 2025
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 116 AM EST MON NOV 10 2025
- THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED FOR ALL BUT
BEACHFRONT COMMUNITIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. LOWS
WILL FALL INTO THE 20S AT MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST TO
LOW 30S NEAR THE COAST. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE LOCAL AREA WITH A HARD FREEZE POSSIBLE IN THE WIREGRASS.
WIND CHILLS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS ALL NORTHEAST GULF WATERS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
NEAR GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE IN WATERS WEST OF APALACHICOLA.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
WITH GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ENTIRE FLORIDA BIG BEND THIS AFTERNOON.
ANY OUTDOOR BURNING IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM EST MON NOV 10 2025
COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE AREA AND BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE
TAKEN HOLD IN ITS WAKE, DRY AIR IS FILTERING IN WITH DEWPOINTS AT
THIS HOUR FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S, WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 40S IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA TO THE 50S IN THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND. A 1038MB HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL SLIDE SOUTH FROM ITS PRESENT
LOCATION IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA BY DAWN
TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH 30S ENTERING THE PICTURE IN THE WIREGRASS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 DEGREES IN THE
WIREGRASS WITH MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND. AS
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO CRASH TODAY AND WINDS OF 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS
TO 30 MPH, ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP WITH A RED FLAG WARNING BEING ISSUED FOR ALL OF OUR
FLORIDA COUNTIES. AS A REMINDER ITS BEEN VERY DRY AS OF LATE WITH
SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT IN PLACE, ANY OUTDOOR BURNING IS HIGHLY
DISCOURAGED.
TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL REACH FREEZING QUICKLY THROUGH THE
WIREGRASS THIS EVENING THEN A FEW HOURS LATER INTO THE FLORIDA
COUNTIES. FREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED JUST ABOUT TO THE
COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S THROUGH
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST GEORGIA, MID TO UPPER 20S
ALONG I10, TO LOW 30S NEAR THE COAST. UPGRADED ALL ZONES TO A
FREEZE WARNING AND ADDED HARD FREEZE LANGUAGE FOR SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA FROM RANDOLPH TO MITCHELL COUNTY
WESTWARD WHERE LOWS COULD FALL TO AS LOW AS 23F. IN ADDITION, A
5-10 MPH WIND OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND ISSUED A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY AS A RESULT
(FOR WIND CHILLS OF 11-20F AL/GA COUNTIES AND 16-25F FL COUNTIES).
BOTH THE FREEZE WARNING AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT THROUGH 8 AM EST / 7 AM CST.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM EST MON NOV 10 2025
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS TOWARDS NORTHEAST
FLORIDA AND WINDS CONTINUE TO RELAX, BECOMING NEARLY CALM TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AFTER A DAY OF HIGHS IN THE 50S TUESDAY,
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER COMPARED TO MONDAY
NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL LEAD TO AN EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AS THE COLDEST OF THE AIRMASS SHIFTS A
LITTLE EAST WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. MAY NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND FOR LOWS TO UNDERCUT CURRENT
FORECAST AS IS THE CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE HIGH AND MOS GUIDANCE
IS A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE FORECAST.
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVERHEAD HEADING INTO LATE WEEK AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ELONGATES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. THIS WILL
HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL RETURN
TO THE 60S WEDNESDAY AND 70S BEGINNING THURSDAY. LOWS WILL WARM AS
WELL FROM THE LOW 40S THURSDAY MORNING TO THE LOW TO MID 50S
SUNDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 116 AM EST MON NOV 10 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG, GUSTY NW
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 18 HOURS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30
KT AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOME AFTER 03Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 116 AM EST MON NOV 10 2025
MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AS STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS
OCCASIONALLY TO GALE FORCE, ESPECIALLY IN WATERS WEST OF
APALACHICOLA THROUGH TONIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 10
FEET IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND 4 TO 8 FEET IN THE NEARSHORE
WATERS. THUS, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ST
ANDREWS BAY WITH WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO DECREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST US AND NORTHEAST GULF WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 116 AM EST MON NOV 10 2025
A DRY AND COLD AIRMASS WILL FILTER IN TO THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST US BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH SPEEDS
OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 20% RANGE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR EASTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG BEND DISTRICTS WHERE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG WITH RECENT DRY
FUELS AND SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. WINDS DECREASE FOR TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSEBY WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 20% RANGE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST
WEDNESDAY WITH A SLOW BUT GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES IN THE LOW TO MID 30% AREA.
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THIS FALL SEASON ARE ON TAP WITH THE
FIRST KILLING FROST AND FREEZE EXPECTED FOR ALL BUT IMMEDIATE
COASTAL LOCATIONS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 116 AM EST MON NOV 10 2025
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME LATER THIS WEEKEND. THEREFORE,
DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OR WORSEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE TRI-
STATE AREA.
VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT FOR MORE INFORMATION.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 53 31 55 33 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 55 33 58 43 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 49 26 55 31 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 50 26 54 30 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 53 27 53 29 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 59 29 57 30 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 54 34 56 44 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM EST /8 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
/7 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-
115-118-127-128-134-326-426.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO
8 AM EST /7 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-
112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-426.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON EST /11 AM CST/ TODAY TO 7 PM EST /6
PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-
115-118-127-128-134-326-426.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ112-114.
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161.
AL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
ALZ065>069.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CST
TUESDAY FOR ALZ065>069.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
GMZ730-751-752-755-765-770-772-775.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ735.
SHORT TERM...SCHOLL
LONG TERM....SCHOLL
AVIATION...YOUNG
MARINE...SCHOLL
FIRE WEATHER...SCHOLL
HYDROLOGY...SCHOLL
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