865
FXUS62 KTAE 101928
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
228 PM EST MON NOV 10 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST MON NOV 10 2025
- THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED FOR ALL BUT
BEACHFRONT COMMUNITIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. LOWS
WILL FALL INTO THE 20S AT MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST TO
LOW 30S NEAR THE COAST. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE LOCAL AREA WITH A HARD FREEZE POSSIBLE IN THE WIREGRASS.
WIND CHILLS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
- A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO
TONIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE NEARSHORE WATERS WEST OF APALACHICOLA,
WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
WITH GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA, THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ENTIRE BIG BEND
THIS AFTERNOON. ANY OUTDOOR BURNING IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST MON NOV 10 2025
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO FREEZING AND BELOW ALL
THE WAY TO THE COASTLINE TONIGHT. AT THE COAST, EXPECT VALUES
AROUND 32 DEGREES. WHEREAS FURTHER INLAND, TEMPERATURES MAY BOTTOM
OUT IN THE MID 20S. ANOTHER HAZARD TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT WILL BE
THE WIND CHILLS. ALONG THE COASTLINE, WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE IN
THE LOW TO MID-20S. INLAND, THE WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY FALL TO
THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. DUE TO THESE TEMPERATURES, FREEZE
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT FOR ALL COUNTIES, WITH A HARD
FREEZE POSSIBLE FOR OUR ALABAMA AND GEORGIA WIREGRASS COUNTIES.
THERE IS A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL OF OUR COUNTIES DUE TO
THE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. THESE HAZARDS WILL
BE IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH 8AM EST / 7AM CST.
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, THE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL ATTEMPT TO
MODERATE WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO THE MID-50S, AND UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO FREEZING AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS, WIND CHILLS AREN'T AS MUCH AS A CONCERN. TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE A DECENT NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO QUICKLY FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT FOR OUR INLAND REGIONS WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW 30S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST MON NOV 10 2025
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
AT THE START, AND TEMPERATURES MODERATING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, INCREASING TO THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 BY THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S INLAND AND LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST, SLOWLY WARMING TO THE LOW
50S AND UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST BY THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK, INDUCING THE WARMING TREND MENTIONED
EARLIER. WE CAN EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE THIS
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRAVELS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE U.S. LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE START OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM EST MON NOV 10 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG, GUSTY NW
WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT AT ALL SITES, BEFORE
SUBSIDING SOME AFTER 03Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST MON NOV 10 2025
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE WAKE
OF YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS HAVE INCREASED TO GALE FORCE
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 KTS AND GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS, HENCE
A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OUR WATERS EXCEPT OUR
NEARSHORE WATERS WEST OF APALACHICOLA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR NEARSHORE WATERS FROM OKALOOSA-WALTON
COUNTY TO APALACHICOLA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AND SEAS
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO
THE REGION LEADING TO FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST MON NOV 10 2025
A DRY AND COLD AIRMASS CONTINUES TO FILTER IN TO THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS SOUTHEAST US BY TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES FALLING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 20% RANGE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT
THIS AFTERNOON FOR OUR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA, EASTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE, AND BIG BEND DISTRICTS WHERE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG WITH RECENT DRY FUELS AND SEVERE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
WINDS DECREASE FOR TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSE BY WITH
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 20%
RANGE. THIS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. LOW
DISPERSIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY WITH A SLOW BUT GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES IN THE LOW TO MID
30% AREA.
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THIS FALL SEASON ARE ON TAP WITH THE
FIRST KILLING FROST AND FREEZE EXPECTED FOR ALL BUT IMMEDIATE
COASTAL LOCATIONS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST MON NOV 10 2025
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVING LATER THIS WEEKEND. DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OR WORSEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE TRI-STATE
AREA.
VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT FOR MORE INFORMATION.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 30 55 33 69 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 33 58 43 69 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 26 54 32 70 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 27 53 30 69 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 28 53 29 68 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 29 57 30 68 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 34 57 44 66 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-
426.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM EST /8 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
/7 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-
115-118-127-128-134-326-426.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO
8 AM EST /7 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-
112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-426.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR FLZ011-013-016>019-027>029-034-326-426.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TUESDAY FOR
FLZ112-114.
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161.
AL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ALZ065>069.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
ALZ065>069.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CST
TUESDAY FOR ALZ065>069.
FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
ALZ066-067-069.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ730-
755-765-775.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 9 AM EST /8 AM
CST/ TUESDAY FOR GMZ730-755-765-770-772-775.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR GMZ730-755-765-775.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ735.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ751-752.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ770-772.
SHORT TERM...MONTGOMERY
LONG TERM....MONTGOMERY
AVIATION...MONTGOMERY
MARINE...MONTGOMERY
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...MONTGOMERY
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