910
FXUS62 KTAE 110631
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
131 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 130 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
- A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IS EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE LOCAL AREA
WITH A HARD FREEZE POSSIBLE IN THE WIREGRASS THIS MORNING. WIND
CHILLS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S AS WELL.
ANOTHER FREEZE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA EAST OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA.
- A GALE WARNING CONTINUES OVERNIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE NEARSHORE
WATERS WEST OF APALACHICOLA, WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MID MORNING.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXIST TODAY WITH LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES COUPLED WITH THE ONGOING DROUGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
A 1033MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE ARKLAMISS CURRENTLY WILL DRIFT
EAST NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON ITS WAY TO NORTHEAST FLORIDA
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE 30S EARLY THIS
MORNING TOWARDS THE 20S TO LOWER 30S AWAY FROM THE COAST BY
SUNRISE. A 5-10 MPH NORTHWEST WIND CONTINUES DROPPING WIND CHILLS
INTO THE MID 20 TO LOWER 30 DEGREE RANGE. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNING WITH EXPIRATION OF
THOSE TWO AFTER SUNRISE.
WINDS CONTINUE TO RELAX TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY AND
DEWPOINTS REMAIN LOW MOSTLY IN THE TEENS UNTIL THE HIGH CENTER
GETS EAST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE MID
50S WITH UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST.
TONIGHT, UPGRADED THE FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING FOR MAINLY
THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE, BIG BEND, SOUTHWEST GEORGIA, AND
ADJACENT SOUTHEAST ALABAMA COUNTIES. LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE
NEARBY WILL LEAD TO A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE WARNING WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND MAY OVERPERFORM AND FALL INTO THE MID 20S.
FURTHER WEST TOWARDS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE, MOISTURE
RETURN AS WINDS OFFSHORE BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL KEEP LOWS
FROM FALLING BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE SOUTHEAST US LEADING TO DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S BY SATURDAY AS WELL AS
LOWS REACHING THE LOWER 50S. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE EAST
COAST LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE
FOUR CORNERS AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
LOW END RAIN CHANCES APPEAR BACK IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE MID-SOUTH.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NW WINDS AROUND 5-10
KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 18 HOURS, BECOMING LIGHT/CALM
AFTER 23Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 130 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OUR WATERS EXCEPT
NEARSHORE LEGS WEST OF APALACHICOLA WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IS IN PLACE INTO MID MORNING. WINDS WILL START TO SUBSIDE AND
SEAS GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION LEADING TO FAVORABLE BOATING
CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 130 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION EAST ACROSS
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND THE NORTHEAST GULF. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND
NOT BE AS STRONG AS ON MONDAY. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE QUITE LOW WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20% RANGE SO
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN FOR TODAY. LOW DISPERSIONS
THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEAST AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE AS WELL. A SLOW
BUT GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE INTO MID TO LATE WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES IN THE MID 30 TO LOW 40% AREA.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 130 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVING LATER THIS WEEKEND. DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OR WORSEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE TRI-STATE
AREA.
VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT FOR MORE INFORMATION.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 55 33 70 46 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 58 41 70 53 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 55 33 71 46 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 53 31 69 42 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 53 31 68 43 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 57 28 68 42 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 57 41 67 52 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST /7 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-
426.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST /7 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-
426.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT EST /11 PM CST/ TONIGHT TO 8 AM EST
/7 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR FLZ011-013-016>019-027>029-034-326-
426.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ112-114-115.
GA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ120>131-
142>148-155>161.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ120>131-
142>148-155>161.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161.
AL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST TUESDAY FOR ALZ065>069.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CST TUESDAY FOR ALZ065>069.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
ALZ066-067-069.
GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
GMZ730-755-765-770-772-775.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 10 AM EST /9 AM
CST/ THIS MORNING FOR GMZ730-755-765-770-772-775.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ751-752.
SHORT TERM...SCHOLL
LONG TERM....SCHOLL
AVIATION...YOUNG
MARINE...SCHOLL
FIRE WEATHER...SCHOLL
HYDROLOGY...SCHOLL
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