322
FXUS62 KTAE 111735
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1235 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
- ANOTHER FREEZE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA EAST OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA.
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXIST TODAY WITH LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES COUPLED WITH THE ONGOING DROUGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 939 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
EXTENDED THE SCA...SEE THE MARINE SECTION BELOW. OTHERWISE, NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. MUCH OF THE REGION
SAW A FREEZE THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES AOB 32F, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE WALTON, BAY, AND GULF COUNTY COASTAL ZONES.
FURTHER NORTHWEST, PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST AL AND SOUTHWEST GA
ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT RIVER EXPERIENCED A HARD FREEZE WITH
TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS 22F.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
A 1033MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE ARKLAMISS CURRENTLY WILL DRIFT
EAST NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON ITS WAY TO NORTHEAST FLORIDA
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE 30S EARLY THIS
MORNING TOWARDS THE 20S TO LOWER 30S AWAY FROM THE COAST BY
SUNRISE. A 5-10 MPH NORTHWEST WIND CONTINUES DROPPING WIND CHILLS
INTO THE MID 20 TO LOWER 30 DEGREE RANGE. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNING WITH EXPIRATION OF
THOSE TWO AFTER SUNRISE.
WINDS CONTINUE TO RELAX TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY AND
DEWPOINTS REMAIN LOW MOSTLY IN THE TEENS UNTIL THE HIGH CENTER
GETS EAST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE MID
50S WITH UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST.
TONIGHT, UPGRADED THE FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING FOR MAINLY
THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE, BIG BEND, SOUTHWEST GEORGIA, AND
ADJACENT SOUTHEAST ALABAMA COUNTIES. LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE
NEARBY WILL LEAD TO A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE WARNING WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND MAY OVERPERFORM AND FALL INTO THE MID 20S.
FURTHER WEST TOWARDS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE, MOISTURE
RETURN AS WINDS OFFSHORE BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL KEEP LOWS
FROM FALLING BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE SOUTHEAST US LEADING TO DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S BY SATURDAY AS WELL AS
LOWS REACHING THE LOWER 50S. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE EAST
COAST LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE
FOUR CORNERS AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
LOW END RAIN CHANCES APPEAR BACK IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE MID-SOUTH.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS. N WINDS (EXCEPT NE AT
DHN) AROUND 5-10 KT (GUSTING TO 20 KT AT ECP) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NEXT 5-6 HRS, BECOMING LIGHT/CALM AFTER 23Z, THEN W AROUND 5 KT
AT MOST SITES LATE WED MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 939 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
FOR FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE GULF WATERS. WINDS WILL START
TO SUBSIDE AND SEAS GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION LEADING TO
FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 130 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION EAST ACROSS
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND THE NORTHEAST GULF. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND
NOT BE AS STRONG AS ON MONDAY. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE QUITE LOW WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20% RANGE SO
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN FOR TODAY. LOW DISPERSIONS
THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEAST AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE AS WELL. A SLOW
BUT GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE INTO MID TO LATE WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES IN THE MID 30 TO LOW 40% AREA.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 130 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVING LATER THIS WEEKEND. DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OR WORSEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE TRI-STATE
AREA.
VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT FOR MORE INFORMATION.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 55 32 69 46 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 58 43 69 53 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 55 33 70 46 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 53 31 69 42 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 52 31 68 42 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 57 28 69 43 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 57 45 67 52 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT EST /11 PM CST/ TONIGHT TO 8 AM EST
/7 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR FLZ011-013-016>019-027>029-034-326-
426.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ112-114-115.
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161.
AL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
ALZ066-067-069.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST /1 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR GMZ730-751-752-755-765-770-772-775.
SHORT TERM...SCHOLL
LONG TERM....SCHOLL
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...SCHOLL
FIRE WEATHER...SCHOLL
HYDROLOGY...SCHOLL
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