302
FXUS62 KTAE 111905
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
205 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 202 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
- ANOTHER FREEZE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA EAST OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXIST TODAY WITH LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES COUPLED WITH THE ONGOING DROUGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT, HOWEVER THE
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER. WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE A CONCERN
WITH VALUES EQUAL TO OR JUST BELOW THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURES. CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT WILL MAKE THIS A GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.
IT IS POSSIBLE FOR FROST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO THE
UPPER 20S/LOW 30S, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND. A FREEZE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FROM 12AM EST/11PM CST THROUGH 8AM
EST/7AM CST WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME OF OUR SE ALABAMA COUNTIES AND
EASTERN FL PANHANDLE COUNTIES MAY HOVER AT OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. THE EMERALD COAST IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING
IN THE LOW 40S. DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, WE CAN EXPECT A QUICK
WARMUP TO THE LOW 70S FOR THE AFTERNOON; THIS IS CLOSER TO THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND WESTERLY DURING THE
DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH IS STILL CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST, SHIFTING THE WINDS
MORE NORTHERLY AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BE BUILDING TO OUR WEST, ALLOWING OUR TEMPERATURES TO WARM
UP TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF THE
WORK WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S, SLOWLY WARMING
TO THE LOW 50S BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS. N WINDS (EXCEPT NE
AT DHN) AROUND 5-10 KT (GUSTING TO 20 KT AT ECP) WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 5-6 HRS, BECOMING LIGHT/CALM AFTER 23Z, THEN W
AROUND 5 KT AT MOST SITES LATE WED MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 202 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES MORESO OVER THE NE GULF AND SE U.S.,
THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. FAVORABLE
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TOMORROW AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 202 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
FOLLOWING TODAY, MOISTURE WILL RETURN WITH HUMIDITY VALUES
IMPROVING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE MINRH BEING IN
THE 30S AND 40S. THE FIRE POTENTIAL RISK DECREASES AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES; HOWEVER, WETTING RAINS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS WILL BE FAIR SOUTH OF I-10,
TO MODERATE NORTH OF I-10. THERE MAY BE A COUPLE OF POCKETS OF
HIGH DISPERSIONS IN THE AL AND GA WIREGRASS REGION. THIS IS DUE TO
WESTERLY TRANSWINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 MPH FOR THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL OVERALL SLOWLY CLOCK AROUND FROM SOUTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY
TO NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY BY FRIDAY STAYING BETWEEN 10-15 MPH RANGE.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 202 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVING LATER THIS WEEKEND. DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OR WORSEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE TRI-STATE
AREA.
VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT FOR MORE INFORMATION.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 32 69 46 75 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 43 69 53 75 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 33 70 46 74 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 31 69 42 74 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 31 68 42 74 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 28 69 43 75 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 45 67 52 72 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT EST /11 PM CST/ TONIGHT TO 8 AM EST
/7 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR FLZ011-013-016>019-027>029-034-326-
426.
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161.
AL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
ALZ066-067-069.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MONTGOMERY
LONG TERM....MONTGOMERY
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...MONTGOMERY
FIRE WEATHER...MONTGOMERY
HYDROLOGY...MONTGOMERY
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